The Simultaneity Bias of the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: Evidence for Brazil
We test ex ante uncovered interest parity (UIP) for Brazil using survey data of ex- change rate expectations from the Brazilian Central Bank. Using data from 2001M11 until 2007M12 and Ordinary Least Squares, we found that the estimated UIP parameter is smaller than one, which is a common ¯nding. We then develop a model that explains how a negative bias can arise due to the simultaneous actions between the Central Bank and speculators. Our results, using Instrumental Variables, show that the bias can be re- duced, and lend support to ex ante UIP. The reduced form, dynamically complete model provides the best ¯t for expected exchange rate changes, as it aims to represent the data generation process of the observed data, in contrast to the single structural equation.
|Date of creation:||2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (016) 633-5617
Fax: (016) 633-6133
Web page: http://www.cpq.fearp.usp.br/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- McCallum, Bennett T., 1994.
"A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 105-132, February.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1992. "A Reconsideration of the Uncovered Interest Parity Relationship," NBER Working Papers 4113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alexius, Annika, 2002. "Can Endogenous Monetary Policy Explain the Deviations from UIP," Working Paper Series 2002:17, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
- Guy Meredith & Menzie D. Chinn, 1998. "Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity," NBER Working Papers 6797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carlo A. Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2004.
"Inflation Targeting and Debt: Lessons from Brazil,"
NBER Working Papers
10390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fea:wpaper:08_20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bruno Vizona Liberato)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.