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Rules vs. Discretion and the Role of the Central Bank

Author

Listed:
  • Makram El-Shagi

    (Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, and School of Economics at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan)

  • Florian Gerth

    (Asian Institute of Management, Philippines)

  • Paul Lukuliko Philemon

    (Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, and School of Economics at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan)

Abstract

We construct a new measure of monetary policy discretion by treating the predictable component of interest-rate changes as rule based and unexpected changes as discretionary. Using newly released high-frequency monetary policy shocks for 20 countries from 2000 to 2024, we document systematic cross-country variation in discretion. Two-way fixed-effects estimates show that greater central-bank independence is associated with higher discretion in developed economies. Event studies around irregular governor turnovers yield little evidence of politically driven discretionary shocks once transitional dynamics are accounted for.

Suggested Citation

  • Makram El-Shagi & Florian Gerth & Paul Lukuliko Philemon, 2026. "Rules vs. Discretion and the Role of the Central Bank," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2026/2, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    • Handle: RePEc:fds:dpaper:202602
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    File URL: http://cfds.henuecon.education/images/dpaper/WP_2_2026_Central_Bank_Independence.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2026
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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