Non-Self-Averaging in Macroeconomic Models: A Criticism of Modern Micro-founded Macroeconomics
Using a simple stochastic growth model, this paper demonstrates that the coefficient of variation of aggregate output or GDP does not necessarily go to zero even if the number of sectors or economic agents goes to infinity. This phenomenon known as non-self-averaging implies that even if the number of economic agents is large, dispersion can remain significant, and, therefore, that we can not legitimately focus on the means of aggregate variables. It, in turn, means that the standard microeconomic foundations based on the representative agent has little value for they are expected to provide us with dynamics of the means of aggregate variables. The paper also shows that non-self-averaging emerges in some representative urn models. It suggests that non-self-averaging is not pathological but quite generic. Thus, contrary to the main stream view, micro-founded macroeconomics such as a dynamic general equilibrium model does not provide solid micro foundations.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 11th floor, Annex, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) 1-3-1, Kasumigaseki Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 100-8901|
Web page: http://www.rieti.go.jp/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1990.
"A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction,"
DELTA Working Papers
90-12, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1990. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," NBER Working Papers 3223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Working papers 527, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Scholarly Articles 12490578, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 8904, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
- Paul M Romer, 1999.
"Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
2232, David K. Levine.
- Plosser, Charles I, 1989.
"Understanding Real Business Cycles,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 51-77, Summer.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
- Aoki, Masanao, 2008.
"Thermodynamic limits of macroeconomic or financial models: One- and two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet models,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 66-84, January.
- Masanao Aoki, . "Thermodynamic Limits of Macroeconomic or Financial Models: One- and Two-Parameter Poisson-Dirichlet Models," UCLA Economics Online Papers 391, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Masanao Aoki, 2006. "Thermodynamic Limits of Macroeconomic or Financial Models: One-and Two-Parameter Poisson-Dirichlet Models," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-445, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Aoki, Masanao, 2002.
"Open models of share markets with two dominant types of participants,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 199-216, October.
- Masanao Aoki, 2002. "Open Models of Share Markets with Two Dominant Types of Participants," UCLA Economics Online Papers 107, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
- Devroye, Luc, 1993. "A triptych of discrete distributions related to the stable law," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 349-351, December.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
- Winter, S. G. & Kaniovski, Y. M. & Dosi, G., 2000.
"Modeling industrial dynamics with innovative entrants,"
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 255-293, September.
- S.G. Winter & Y.M. Kaniovski & G. Dosi, 1998. "Modeling Industrial Dynamics with Innovative Entrants," Working Papers ir98022, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
- Sydney Winter & Yuri Kaniovski & Giovanni Dosi, 1999. "Modeling Industrial Dynamics with Innovative Entrants," LEM Papers Series 1999/01, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
- Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982.
"Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations,"
Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
- Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1982. "Executable program for "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations"," QM&RBC Codes 4, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1982. "Web interface for "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations"," QM&RBC Codes 4a, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:07057. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (NUKATANI Sorahiko)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.