The Calm Before the Storm? - Anticipating the Arrival of General Purpose Technologies
This paper presents a Schumpeterian quality-ladder model incorporating the impact of new General Purpose Technologies (GPTs). GPTs are breakthrough technologies with a wide range of applications, opening up new innovational complementarities. In contrast to most existing models which focus on the events after the arrival of a new GPT, the model developed in this paper focuses on the events before the arrival if R&D firms know the point of time and the technological impact of this drastic innovation. In this framework we can show, that the economy goes through three main phases: First, the economy is in its old steady state. Second, there are transitional dynamics and finally, the economy is in a new steady state with higher growth rates. The transitional dynamics are characterized by oscillating cycles. Shortly before the arrival of a new GPT, there is an increase in R&D activities and growth going even beyond the old steady state levels and immediately before the arrival of the new GPT, there is a large slump in R&D activities using the old GPT.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +41 44 632 03 87
Fax: +41 44 632 13 62
Web page: http://www.cer.ethz.ch
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Miles S. Kimball & John G. Fernald & Susanto Basu, 2006.
"Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1418-1448, December.
- Susanto Basu & John Fernald & Miles Kimball, 1998. "Are technology improvements contractionary?," International Finance Discussion Papers 625, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Susanto Basu & John Fernald & Miles Kimball, 2004. "Are technology improvements contractionary?," Working Paper Series WP-04-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Susanto Basu & John Fernald & Miles Kimball, 2002. "Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1986, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Susanto Basu & John Fernald & Miles Kimball, 2004. "Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?," NBER Working Papers 10592, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dinopoulos, Elias & Segerstrom, Paul, 1996.
"A Schumpeterian Model of Protection and Relative Wages,"
Working Paper Series
471, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
- Paul Segerstrom & Elias Dinopoulos, 1999. "A Schumpeterian Model of Protection and Relative Wages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 450-472, June.
- Paul M Romer, 1999.
"Endogenous Technological Change,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
2135, David K. Levine.
- Cheng, Leonard K. & Dinopoulos, Elias, 1996. "A multisectoral general equilibrium model of Schumpeterian growth and fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 905-923, May.
- Jacobs, Bas & Nahuis, Richard, 2002. "A general purpose technology explains the Solow paradox and wage inequality," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 243-250, January.
- Iordanis Petsas, 2003. "The dynamic effects of general purpose technologies on Schumpeterian growth," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 13(5), pages 577-605, December.
- Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2007.
"Modeling the Transition to a New Economy: Lessons from Two Technological Revolutions,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 64-88, March.
- Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2006. "Modeling the transition to a new economy: lessons from two technological revolutions," Staff Report 296, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Richard Nahuis, 2004. "Learning for Innovation and the Skill Premium," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 83(2), pages 151-179, November.
- Nicholas Crafts, 2004.
"Steam as a general purpose technology: A growth accounting perspective,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(495), pages 338-351, 04.
- Nicholas Crafts, 2003. "Steam as a general purpose technology: a growth accounting perspective," Economic History Working Papers 22354, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
- Bresnahan, Timothy F. & Trajtenberg, M., 1995.
"General purpose technologies 'Engines of growth'?,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 83-108, January.
- Sjak Smulders & Lucas Bretschger & Hannes Egli, 2011. "Economic Growth and the Diffusion of Clean Technologies: Explaining Environmental Kuznets Curves," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 49(1), pages 79-99, May.
- Lipsey, Richard G. & Carlaw, Kenneth I. & Bekar, Clifford T., 2005. "Economic Transformations: General Purpose Technologies and Long-Term Economic Growth," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199290895, March.
- David, Paul A, 1990. "The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on the Modern Productivity Paradox," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 355-61, May.
- Eriksson, Clas & Lindh, Thomas, 2000.
"Growth cycles with technology shifts and externalities,"
Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 139-170, January.
- Erikson, C. & Lindh, T., 1997. "Growth Cycles with Technology Shifts and Externalities," Papers 1997-15, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
- Eriksson, Clas & Lindh, Thomas, 1997. "Growth Cycles with Technology Shifts and Externalities," Working Paper Series 1997:15, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
- Atack, Jeremy, 1979. "Fact in fiction? The relative costs of steam and water power: a simulation approach," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 409-437, October.
- Kenneth I. Carlaw & Richard G. Lipsey, 2006. "Gpt-Driven, Endogenous Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(508), pages 155-174, 01.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eth:wpswif:08-81. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.