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A Note on Estimating Unemployment By Education


  • Ide Kearney

    () (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI))


In this paper we describe a range of methods for preparing forecasts of the educational profile of employment in the Irish economy. We use these forecasts to derive a profile of the possible evolution-specific unemployment rates in the next decade. Our results indicate the following: -Changes in the educational composition of the labour force alone imply, ceteris paribus, a fall in the overall unemployment rate of 4.5 percentage points by 2010 compared to 1996. -Underlying structural change in the economy, towards more skill-intensive sectors, is by itself driving an increase in the demand for skilled workers at the expense of unskilled workers. -Education-specific unemployment rates, for a given overall unemployment rate, are higher for unskilled workers than for skilled workers. -The most likely outcome for the next decade is an emerging shortage of skilled labour and surplus of unskilled labour. The demand for semi-skilled labour should remain strong.

Suggested Citation

  • Ide Kearney, 1999. "A Note on Estimating Unemployment By Education," Papers WP103, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp103

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Bergin, Adele & Cullen, Joseph & Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & McCoy, Daniel, 2003. "The ESRI Medium-Term Economic Model," Book Chapters,in: Medium-Term Review 1991-1996 Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. John FitzGerald & Ide Kearney, 1999. "Migration and the Irish Labour Market," Papers WP113, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
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    Cited by:

    1. Diarmaid Smyth, 2000. "Evidence on Tightness in the Irish Labour Market," Papers WP131, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & Morgenroth, Edgar & Smyth, Diarmaid, 1999. "National Investment Priorities For The Period 2000-2006," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number PRS33.

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