A Note on Estimating Unemployment By Education
In this paper we describe a range of methods for preparing forecasts of the educational profile of employment in the Irish economy. We use these forecasts to derive a profile of the possible evolution-specific unemployment rates in the next decade. Our results indicate the following: -Changes in the educational composition of the labour force alone imply, ceteris paribus, a fall in the overall unemployment rate of 4.5 percentage points by 2010 compared to 1996. -Underlying structural change in the economy, towards more skill-intensive sectors, is by itself driving an increase in the demand for skilled workers at the expense of unskilled workers. -Education-specific unemployment rates, for a given overall unemployment rate, are higher for unskilled workers than for skilled workers. -The most likely outcome for the next decade is an emerging shortage of skilled labour and surplus of unskilled labour. The demand for semi-skilled labour should remain strong.
|Date of creation:||Feb 1999|
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- Bergin, Adele & Cullen, Joseph & Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & McCoy, Daniel, 2003.
"The ESRI Medium-Term Economic Model,"
Book Chapters,in: Medium-Term Review 1991-1996
Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- Bradley, John & FitzGerald, John, 1991. "The ESRI Medium-Term Economic Model," Book Chapters,in: Medium-Term Review: 1991-1996, pages 73-78 Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- John FitzGerald & Ide Kearney, 1999. "Migration and the Irish Labour Market," Papers WP113, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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