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A Note on Estimating Unemployment By Education

Listed author(s):
  • Ide Kearney

    ()

    (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI))

In this paper we describe a range of methods for preparing forecasts of the educational profile of employment in the Irish economy. We use these forecasts to derive a profile of the possible evolution-specific unemployment rates in the next decade. Our results indicate the following: -Changes in the educational composition of the labour force alone imply, ceteris paribus, a fall in the overall unemployment rate of 4.5 percentage points by 2010 compared to 1996. -Underlying structural change in the economy, towards more skill-intensive sectors, is by itself driving an increase in the demand for skilled workers at the expense of unskilled workers. -Education-specific unemployment rates, for a given overall unemployment rate, are higher for unskilled workers than for skilled workers. -The most likely outcome for the next decade is an emerging shortage of skilled labour and surplus of unskilled labour. The demand for semi-skilled labour should remain strong.

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File URL: http://www.esri.ie/pubs/WP103.pdf
File Function: First version, 1999
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in its series Papers with number WP103.

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Length: 11 pages
Date of creation: Feb 1999
Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp103
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  1. Bergin, Adele & Cullen, Joseph & Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & McCoy, Daniel, 2003. "The ESRI Medium-Term Economic Model," Book Chapters,in: Medium-Term Review 1991-1996 Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  2. John FitzGerald & Ide Kearney, 1999. "Migration and the Irish Labour Market," Papers WP113, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
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