IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/esr/wpaper/wp103.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Note on Estimating Unemployment By Education

Author

Listed:
  • Ide Kearney

    () (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI))

Abstract

In this paper we describe a range of methods for preparing forecasts of the educational profile of employment in the Irish economy. We use these forecasts to derive a profile of the possible evolution-specific unemployment rates in the next decade. Our results indicate the following: -Changes in the educational composition of the labour force alone imply, ceteris paribus, a fall in the overall unemployment rate of 4.5 percentage points by 2010 compared to 1996. -Underlying structural change in the economy, towards more skill-intensive sectors, is by itself driving an increase in the demand for skilled workers at the expense of unskilled workers. -Education-specific unemployment rates, for a given overall unemployment rate, are higher for unskilled workers than for skilled workers. -The most likely outcome for the next decade is an emerging shortage of skilled labour and surplus of unskilled labour. The demand for semi-skilled labour should remain strong.

Suggested Citation

  • Ide Kearney, 1999. "A Note on Estimating Unemployment By Education," Papers WP103, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp103
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.esri.ie/pubs/WP103.pdf
    File Function: First version, 1999
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bergin, Adele & Cullen, Joseph & Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & McCoy, Daniel, 2003. "The ESRI Medium-Term Economic Model," Book Chapters,in: Medium-Term Review 1991-1996 Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. John FitzGerald & Ide Kearney, 1999. "Migration and the Irish Labour Market," Papers WP113, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Diarmaid Smyth, 2000. "Evidence on Tightness in the Irish Labour Market," Papers WP131, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & Morgenroth, Edgar & Smyth, Diarmaid, 1999. "National Investment Priorities For The Period 2000-2006," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number PRS33.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp103. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sarah Burns). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/esriiie.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.