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Impacts of COVID-19 on the Energy Demand Situation of East Asia Summit Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Shigeru Kimura

    (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA))

  • Ikarii Ryohei
  • Endo Seiya

    (The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ))

Abstract

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has brought us a ‘New Normal’ life style and the lockdown has severely harmed economic growth, with many countries estimated to record negative economic growth in 2020. Due to the high correlation between energy demand and economic growth, energy demand is also affected. Against this background, ERIA analyses how energy demand has decreased as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic using East Asia Summit (EAS) energy outlook models that are regularly updated by ERIA and apply an econometric approach. The outlook models cover the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) 10 countries plus seven countries – Australia, China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea, New Zealand, and the United States. According to gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimates for EAS countries in 2020, only three countries – China, Lao PDR, and Viet Nam – show positive growth, though less than 2%, and the others show negative growth. Total Final Energy Consumption (TFEC) of the EAS countries fell in 2020, but it is expected to rebound in 2021 and projected to return to the originally forecast trend of energy demand up to 2050. Once official energy statistics become available, a comparison between model results and actual statistics will be made to understand how the energy outlook models trace the impact of the pandemic on energy demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Shigeru Kimura & Ikarii Ryohei & Endo Seiya, 2021. "Impacts of COVID-19 on the Energy Demand Situation of East Asia Summit Countries," Working Papers DP-2021-22, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    • Handle: RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-22
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xuepeng Liu & Emanuel Ornelas & Huimin Shi, 2022. "The trade impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(12), pages 3751-3779, December.
    2. Xunpeng Shi & Tsun Se Cheong & Michael Zhou, 2021. "Economic and Emission Impact of Australia–China Trade Disruption: Implication for Regional Economic Integration," Working Papers DP-2021-20, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    3. Archanun Kohpaiboon & Juthathip Jongwanich, 2021. "The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Global Production Sharing in East Asia," Working Papers DP-2021-03, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    4. Nobuaki Yamashita & Kiichiro Fukasaku, 2021. "Is the COVID-19 Pandemic Recasting Global Value Chains in East Asia?," Working Papers DP-2021-19, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    5. Lili Yan Ing & Gracia Hadiwidjaja, 2021. "East Asian Integration and Its Main Challenge: NTMs in Australia, China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea, and New Zealand," Working Papers DP-2021-21, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher Findlay & Hein Roelfsema & Niall Van De Wouw, 2021. "Feeling the Pulse of Global Value Chains: Air Cargo and COVID-19," Working Papers DP-2021-23, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    2. Sarah Y Tong & Yao Li & Tuan Yuen Kong, 2021. "Exploring Digital Economic Agreements to Promote Digital Connectivity in ASEAN," Working Papers DP-2021-24, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; East Asia Summit; energy demand;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • P18 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Energy; Environment

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