Gains from Trade? The Net Effect of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement on U.S. Wages
Recent estimates of the U.S. economic gains that would result from the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) are very small — only 0.13 percent of GDP by 2025. Taking into account the un-equalizing effect of trade on wages, this paper finds the median wage earner will probably lose as a result of any such agreement. In fact, most workers are likely to lose — the exceptions being some of the bottom quarter or so whose earnings are determined by the minimum wage; and those with the highest wages who are more protected from international competition. Rather, many top incomes will rise as a result of TPP expansion of the terms and enforcement of copyrights and patents. The long-term losses, going forward over the same period (to 2025), from the failure to restore full employment to the United States have been some 25 times greater than the potential gains of the TPP, and more than five times as large as the possible gains resulting from a much broader trade agenda.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 1611 Connecticut Ave, NW Suite 400, Washington, DC 20009|
Phone: (202) 293-5380
Fax: (202) 588 1356
Web page: http://www.cepr.net/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Peter A. Petri & Michael G. Plummer & Fan Zhai, 2012. "The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 6642, December.
- David Rosnick & Dean Baker, 2012. "Missing the Story: The OECD's Analysis of Inequality," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2012-19, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:epo:papers:2013-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.