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Riding Bubbles

Author

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  • Günster, N.K.
  • Kole, H.J.W.G.
  • Jacobsen, B.

Abstract

Bubbles can persist because investors are better off riding bubbles. We define bubbles in a natural way as significant, prolonged deviations from fundamental values measured by the well-known asset pricing models. Our real-time bubble detection system shows that –using US industry returns– periods of both higher volatility and higher abnormal returns follow noisy positive bubble signals. However, for the typical investor the risk-return trade-off improves. Riding bubbles generates annual abnormal returns of three to nine percent. These conclusions are robust to different assumptions and our system allows for alternative multifactor models as proxies for fundamental value.

Suggested Citation

  • Günster, N.K. & Kole, H.J.W.G. & Jacobsen, B., 2009. "Riding Bubbles," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2009-058-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureri:17525
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    File URL: https://repub.eur.nl/pub/17525/ERS-2009-058-FA.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sigl-Grüb, C. & Schiereck, D., 2010. "Speculation and Nonlinear Price Dynamics in Commodity Futures Markets," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 56603, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    asset pricing model; bubbles; limits to arbitrage; market efficiency; structural breaks;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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