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Oil Price Shocks and Long Run Price and Import Demand Behavior

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  • Kleibergen, F.R.
  • Urbain, J-P.
  • van Dijk, H.K.

Abstract

The effect which the oil price time series has on the long run properties of Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) models for price levels and import demand is investigated. As the oil price variable is assumed to be weakly exogenous for the long run parameters, a cointegration testing procedure allowing for weakly exogenous variables is developed using a LU\\ decomposition of the long run multiplier matrix. The likelihood based cointegration test statistics, Wald, Likelihood Ratio and Lagrange Multiplier, are constructed and their limiting distributions derived. Using these tests, we find that incorporating the oil price in a model for the domestic or import price level of seven industrialized countries decreases the long run memory of the inflation rate. Second, we find that the results for import demand can be classified with respect to the oil importing or exporting status of the specific country. The result for Japan is typical as its import price is not influenced by gnp in the long run, which is the case for all other countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Kleibergen, F.R. & Urbain, J-P. & van Dijk, H.K., 1997. "Oil Price Shocks and Long Run Price and Import Demand Behavior," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9709-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:1418
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. P. C. B. Phillips & S. N. Durlauf, 1986. "Multiple Time Series Regression with Integrated Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 473-495.
    2. Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 1992. "On Weak Exogeneity in Error Correction Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(2), pages 187-207, May.
    3. Clarida, Richard H, 1994. "Cointegration, Aggregate Consumption, and the Demand for Imports: A Structural Econometric Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 298-308, March.
    4. Asseery, A. & Peel, D. A., 1991. "Estimates of a traditional aggregate import demand model for five countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 435-439, April.
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    6. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1994. "Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 7-36, July.
    7. Kleibergen, Frank & van Dijk, Herman K., 1994. "Direct cointegration testing in error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 61-103, July.
    8. Haynes, Stephen E & Stone, Joe A, 1985. "A Neglected Method of Separating Demand and Supply in Time Series Regression," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 238-243, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Groen, Jan J J & Kleibergen, Frank, 2003. "Likelihood-Based Cointegration Analysis in Panels of Vector Error-Correction Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(2), pages 295-318, April.

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    Keywords

    VAR models; oil price time series;

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