IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ekd/002672/4438.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Historical simulations with a dynamic CGE model: results for an emerging economy

Author

Listed:
  • Jakub Boratyński

Abstract

Policy analysis with a dynamic CGE model requires a baseline solution that is a plausible forecast of the whole set of model's variables. An important issue in the development of the baseline forecast is to account for structural change. This is aided by the technique of historical simulations which helps identify the characteristics of structural change in the past. In this study we present our experiences with historical simulations using a recursive-dynamic CGE model for Poland. In historical simulations with a CGE model the observable macro and industry variables are exogenised, while endogenising technology and taste parameters. This allows to uncover the movements of the latter, which we do year-by-year. Preliminary results show a relatively large variation of technology and taste parameters required to fit the data. We expect the final results to shed some light on the issue of reliability of CGE baseline forecasts for an emerging economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakub Boratyński, 2012. "Historical simulations with a dynamic CGE model: results for an emerging economy," EcoMod2012 4438, EcoMod.
    • Handle: RePEc:ekd:002672:4438
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ecomod.net/system/files/Paper2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Russell H. Hillberry & Michael A. Anderson & Edward J. Balistreri & Alan K. Fox, 2005. "Taste Parameters as Model Residuals: Assessing the “Fit” of an Armington Trade Model," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 973-984, November.
    2. James Giesecke, 2008. "The Effects Of Recent Structural, Policy And External Shocks To The Australian Economy, 1996/97–2001/02," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 15-37, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wenting Wang & Longbao Wei, 2021. "Impacts of agricultural price support policy on price variability and welfare: Evidence from China's soybean market," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(1), pages 3-17, January.
    2. Lionel Fontagné & Houssein Guimbard & Gianluca Orefice, 2019. "Product-Level Trade Elasticities," Working Papers 2019-17, CEPII research center.
    3. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2010. "Labour Market Dynamics in Australia: What Drives Unemployment?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(273), pages 185-209, June.
    4. Sang‐Wook (Stanley) Cho & Julián P. Díaz, 2016. "Accounting for Skill Premium Patterns: Evidence from the EU Accession," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(1), pages 271-299, July.
    5. Fontagné, Lionel & Guimbard, Houssein & Orefice, Gianluca, 2022. "Tariff-based product-level trade elasticities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    6. Bajzik, Josef & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Schwarz, Jiri, 2020. "Estimating the Armington elasticity: The importance of study design and publication bias," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    7. Edward J. Balistreri & Russell H. Hillberry, 2008. "The Gravity Model: An Illustration Of Structural Estimation As Calibration," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 46(4), pages 511-527, October.
    8. Niemi, Janne, 2019. "Trade, persistent habits and development - a dynamic CGE model analysis," Conference papers 333084, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Yulin Hou & Yun Wang & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2023. "Gravity channels in trade," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 37-65, January.
    10. Bureau Jean-Christophe & Salvatici Luca, 2004. "WTO Negotiations on Market Access in Agriculture: a Comparison of Alternative Tariff Cut Proposals for the EU and the US," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-35, March.
    11. Josef Bajzik & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Jiri Schwarz, 2019. "The Elasticity of Substitution between Domestic and Foreign Goods: A Quantitative Survey," Working Papers 2019/12, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    12. Carrascal-Incera, André & Orea, Luis, 2024. "A new approach for estimating trade elasticities and measuring the productivity effects associated with trade," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    13. Zhao, Xin & Calvin, Katherine V. & Wise, Marshall A. & Iyer, Gokul, 2021. "The role of global agricultural market integration in multiregional economic modeling: Using hindcast experiments to validate an Armington model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-17.
    14. Welsch, Heinz, 2008. "Armington elasticities for energy policy modeling: Evidence from four European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2252-2264, September.
    15. Yao, Guolin & Zhang, Xin & Davidson, Eric & Taheripour, Farzad & Tyner, Wally, 2020. "The environmental consequences of a weakening US-China crop trade relationship," Conference papers 333191, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ekd:002672:4438. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Theresa Leary (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ecomoea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.