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The dog that didn’t bark: on the effect of the Great Recession on the surge of secessionism

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  • Cuadras-Morató, Xavier
  • Rodon, Toni

Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between the economic turmoil generated by the Great Recession and the increase of secessionism. Some authors have stressed that the Great Recession triggered profound changes in territorial preferences and, in the context of a conflict between the centre and the periphery, fuelled secessionism as a radical shift of the institutional setup. Nevertheless, other researchers have remarked that a deep recession may enhance the status quo bias and decrease the likelihood of radical changes. Our paper aims at contributing to this debate by analysing the case of Catalonia. We use an aggregate and an individual level empirical design to explore the relationship between the deterioration of the economic situation and the increase of preferences for secession among the Catalan population. The findings from the analysis of our empirical models do not support the hypothesis that the effects of the Great Recession had any significant impact on political preferences in Catalonia.

Suggested Citation

  • Cuadras-Morató, Xavier & Rodon, Toni, 2018. "The dog that didn’t bark: on the effect of the Great Recession on the surge of secessionism," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 91542, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:91542
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    7. Paolo Dardanelli, 2005. "Democratic Deficit or the Europeanisation of Secession? Explaining the Devolution Referendums in Scotland," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 53(2), pages 320-342, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jordi Argelaguet, 2021. "The Relevance of Language as a Predictor of the Will for Independence in Catalonia in 1996 and 2020," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 9(4), pages 426-438.
    2. José M. Oller & Albert Satorra & Adolf Tobeña, 2019. "Unveiling pathways for the fissure among secessionists and unionists in Catalonia: identities, family language, and media influence," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 5(1), pages 1-13, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Great Recession; unemployment; secession; economic crisis; Catalonia; Spain;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • N0 - Economic History - - General

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