Bayesian group belief
If a group is modelled as a single Bayesian agent, what should its beliefs be? I propose an axiomatic model that connects group beliefs to beliefs of the group members. The group members may have different information, different prior beliefs and even different domains (algebras) within which they hold beliefs, accounting for differences in awareness and conceptualisation. As is shown, group beliefs can incorporate all information spread across individuals without individuals having to explicitly communicate their information (that may be too complex or personal to describe, or not describable in principle in the language). The group beliefs derived here take a simple multiplicative form if people's information is independent (and a more complex form if information overlaps arbitrarily). This form contrasts with familiar linear or geometric opinion pooling and the (Pareto) requirement of respecting unanimous beliefs.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Social Choice and Welfare, October, 2010, 35(4), pp. 595-626. ISSN: 0176-1714|
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- Mongin Philippe, 1995.
"Consistent Bayesian Aggregation,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 313-351, August.
- Mongin, P., . "Consistent Bayesian aggregation," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1176, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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- Franz Dietrich, 2004. "Opinion Pooling under Asymmetric Information," Public Economics 0407002, EconWPA.
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"Opinion pooling on general agendas,"
038, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
- Pivato, Marcus, 2008. "The Discursive Dilemma and Probabilistic Judgement Aggregation," MPRA Paper 8412, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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