The Paradox of the Bayesian Experts and State-Dependent Utility Theory
When n individuals satisfy the axioms of subjective expected utility (SEU) theory and these individuals' probabilities or/and utilities are sufficiently diverse, it is impossible to aggregate the individuals' preferences into a (n + 1)-preference which is both Paretian and in agreement with SEU theory. The paper restates this paradox in the framework of Anscombe and Aumann's axiomatization of SEU and investigates the consequences of relaxing their state-independence assumption. The paradox disappears from the pure state-dependent framework but reappears in a different form in a sophisticated variant of state-dependent utility theory which achieves the uniqueness of subjective probabilities. The paper compares this novel impossibility result with the earlier one. It concludes by discussing the foundations of the Pareto principle in both the ex ante and ex post versions.
|Date of creation:||01 Jun 1996|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Fax: +32 10474304
Web page: http://www.uclouvain.be/core
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- ZHOU, Lin, 1996. "Bayesian Utilitarianism," CORE Discussion Papers 1996011, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Hammond, Peter J, 1981. "Ex-ante and Ex-post Welfare Optimality under Uncertainty," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 48(191), pages 235-50, August.
- Karni, Edi & Schmeidler, David, 1993.
"On the Uniqueness of Subjective Probabilities,"
Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 267-77, April.
- Mark J. Schervish & Teddy Seidenfeld & Joseph B. Kadane, 1991. "Shared Preferences and State-Dependent Utilities," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(12), pages 1575-1589, December.
- Karni, Edi, 1993. "A Definition of Subjective Probabilities with State-Dependent Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 187-98, January.
- DE MEYER, Bernard & MONGIN , Philippe, 1994.
"A Note on Affine Aggregation,"
CORE Discussion Papers
1994014, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Mongin, P., .
"Consistent Bayesian aggregation,"
CORE Discussion Papers RP
-1176, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- F J Anscombe & R J Aumann, 2000. "A Definition of Subjective Probability," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7591, David K. Levine.
- Broome, John, 1990. "Bolker-Jeffrey Expected Utility Theory and Axiomatic Utilitarianism," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 477-502, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:1996026. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alain GILLIS)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.