Breaking bad or making amends? The dynamics of internal conflict after democratisation

This paper examines the impact of democratisation on internal conflict, with a focus on the timing of effects and the type of conflict involved. Using a local projection-based difference-in-differences approach and a panel of 160 countries from 1919 to 2021, we distinguish between minor (e.g., protests and strikes) and major (e.g., revolutions and assassinations) conflict events through factor analysis. We find that democratisation leads to a substantial and persistent decline in minor conflict, with effects growing stronger over time. For major conflict, point estimates are generally negative and become statistically significant only after more than a decade post-democratisation. These results are consistent with the view that democratisation can defuse lower-intensity unrest, whereas evidence on large-scale violence suggests that it is subject to a slower adjustment process. The findings enhance our understanding of the democratisation-conflict nexus and provide insights for policy formulation and conflict management strategies.