IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehl/lserod/126831.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Should I stay or should I go? Return migration from the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Manning, Alan
  • Mazeine, Graham

Abstract

Return migration is important, but how many migrants leave and who is poorly understood. This paper proposes a new method for estimating return migration rates using aggregated repeated cross-sectional data, treating the number of migrants in a group who arrived in a particular year as an unobserved fixed effect, and the observed number (including, importantly, observed zeroes) in the arrival or subsequent years as observations from a Poisson distribution. Compared to existing methods, this allows us to estimate return rates for many more migrant groups, allowing more in-depth analysis of the factors that influence return migration rates. We apply this method to US data and find a decreasing hazard, with most returns occurring by eight years after arrival, when about 13% of migrants have left. The return rate is significantly lower for women, those who arrive at a young age, and those from poorer; it is higher for those on non-immigrant visas for work or study. We also provide suggestive evidence that, conditional on their country of origin, those with lower education are more likely to return.

Suggested Citation

  • Manning, Alan & Mazeine, Graham, 2024. "Should I stay or should I go? Return migration from the United States," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 126831, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:126831
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/126831/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lewer, Joshua J. & Van den Berg, Hendrik, 2008. "A gravity model of immigration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 164-167, April.
    2. Anna Mayda, 2010. "International migration: a panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 1249-1274, September.
    3. Frédéric Docquier & Giovanni Peri & Ilse Ruyssen, 2016. "The Cross-country Determinants of Potential and Actual Migration," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: The Economics of International Migration, chapter 12, pages 361-423, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Christian Dustmann & Yoram Weiss, 2007. "Return Migration: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the UK," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 236-256, June.
    5. Jennifer Hook & Weiwei Zhang & Frank D. Bean & Jeffrey S. Passel, 2006. "Foreign-born emigration: A new approach and estimates based on matched CPS files," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 43(2), pages 361-382, May.
    6. Patricia Reagan & Randall Olsen, 2000. "You can go home again: Evidence from longitudinal data," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 37(3), pages 339-350, August.
    7. Christian Dustmann & Yoram Weiss, 2007. "Return Migration: Theory and Empirical Evidence," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0702, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Els Bekaert & Amelie F. Constant & Killian Foubert & Ilse Ruyssen, 2021. "Longing for Which Home: Evidence from Global Aspirations to Stay, Return or Migrate Onwards," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 21/1028, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    2. Christian Dustmann, 2014. "Selective Outmigration and the Estimation of Immigrants Earnings Profiles," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1402, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    3. Biavaschi, Costanza, 2013. "Fifty Years of Compositional Changes in U.S. Out-Migration, 1908-1957," IZA Discussion Papers 7258, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Bekaert, Els & Constant, Amelie F. & Foubert, Killian & Ruyssen, Ilse, 2024. "Longing for which home: A global analysis of the determinants of aspirations to stay, return or migrate onwards," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 219(C), pages 564-587.
    5. Frédéric Docquier & Hillel Rapoport, 2012. "Globalization, Brain Drain, and Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(3), pages 681-730, September.
    6. Amelie F. Constant, 2020. "Time-Space Dynamics of Return and Circular Migration: Theories and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 8053, CESifo.
    7. Amelie F. Constant, 2019. "Return, Circular, and Onward Migration Decisions in a Knowledge Society," CESifo Working Paper Series 7913, CESifo.
    8. Greenwood, Michael J. & Ward, Zachary, 2015. "Immigration quotas, World War I, and emigrant flows from the United States in the early 20th century," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 76-96.
    9. Sari Pekkala Kerr & William Kerr & Çağlar Özden & Christopher Parsons, 2017. "High-Skilled Migration and Agglomeration," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 201-234, September.
    10. Rafael de Arce & Ramon Mahia, 2012. "Have Migrants Bought a "Round Trip Ticket"? Determinants in Probability of Immigrants' Return in Spain," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, April.
    11. Philippe Wanner, 2021. "Can Migrants’ Emigration Intentions Predict Their Actual Behaviors? Evidence from a Swiss Survey," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 1151-1179, September.
    12. Hubert Jayet & Glenn Rayp & Ilse Ruyssen & Nadiya Ukrayinchuk, 2016. "Immigrants’ location choice in Belgium," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 57(1), pages 63-89, July.
    13. Philippe Wanner & Marco Pecoraro & Massimiliano Tani, 2021. "Does Educational Mismatch Affect Emigration Behaviour?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(4), pages 959-995, November.
    14. Helbling, Marc & Simon, Stephan & Schmid, Samuel D., 2020. "Restricting immigration to foster migrant integration? A comparative study across 22 European countries," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 46(13), pages 2603-2624.
    15. Christian Dustmann & Giovanni Facchini & Cora Signorotto, 2015. "Population, Migration, Ageing and Health: A Survey," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1518, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    16. Chinnu Thomas & Ajithakumari Vijayappan Nair Biju & Ratheesh R, 2025. "Employability Assessment of Emigrant Gulf Returnees: The Case of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 175-211, March.
    17. Wiśniewski, Daniel, 2013. "Tymczasowy drenaż mózgów, dystans do krajów najbogatszych oraz dobrobyt w krajach wysyłających," Gospodarka Narodowa-The Polish Journal of Economics, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie / SGH Warsaw School of Economics, vol. 2013(5-6), June.
    18. Sari Pekkala Kerr & William Kerr & Çağlar Özden & Christopher Parsons, 2017. "High-Skilled Migration and Agglomeration," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 201-234, September.
    19. Thomas Steinwachs, 2019. "Geography Matters: Spatial Dimensions of Trade, Migration and Growth," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 81, September.
    20. Nicola D. Coniglio & Giuseppe De Arcangelis & Laura Serlenga, 2010. "Return Decisions of Undocumented Migrants: Do Network Effects Help the High‐skilled Overstay?," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 24(s1), pages 93-113, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:126831. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: LSERO Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.