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From Reagan to Trump: Regional development traps and the remaking of American electoral politics

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  • Andrés Rodríguez-Pose
  • Ali Glisson

Abstract

This paper examines the territorial reconfiguration of American electoral politics since the 1980s, tracing the remaking of Republican support from Reagan’s 1984 landslide to Trump’s three presidential campaigns (2016, 2020, 2024). Drawing on panel data for every presidential election from 1984 to 2024 across 722 commuting zones, we test whether regional development traps, defined as enduring economic underperformance, explain both the shift from Democrats to Republicans and the Republicans’ internal realignment. Mundlak/Correlated Random Effects estimates show backlash is overwhelmingly driven by structural, not cyclical, decline. Short-term economic fluctuations do not predict Republican swing, while long-run territorial position does so decisively. Voters are not responding to recessions. They are registering alienation from an economic order that has failed their communities for a generation. Trump’s gains concentrated in places persistently left behind, whose peripheral position has become entrenched.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Ali Glisson, 2026. "From Reagan to Trump: Regional development traps and the remaking of American electoral politics," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2623, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Oct 2026.
    • Handle: RePEc:egu:wpaper:2623
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kinder, Donald R. & Kiewiet, D. Roderick, 1981. "Sociotropic Politics: The American Case," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 129-161, April.
    2. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Lewis Dijkstra & Hugo Poelman, 2024. "The Geography of EU Discontent and the Regional Development Trap," Economic Geography, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 100(3), pages 213-245, May.
    3. Andreas Diemer & Simona Iammarino & Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Michael Storper, 2022. "The Regional Development Trap in Europe," Economic Geography, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 98(5), pages 487-509, October.
    4. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Javier Terrero-Dávila & Neil Lee, 2023. "Left-behind versus unequal places: interpersonal inequality, economic decline and the rise of populism in the USA and Europe," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 951-977.
    5. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Andr�s Rodr�guez-Pose & Enrique Garcilazo, 2015. "Quality of Government and the Returns of Investment: Examining the Impact of Cohesion Expenditure in European Regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(8), pages 1274-1290, August.
    7. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    8. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Javier Terrero-Davila & Neil Lee, 2023. "Left-Behind vs. Unequal Places: Interpersonal Inequality, Economic Decline, and the Rise of Populism in the US and Europe," LIS Working papers 859, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    9. Fabrizio Barca & Philip McCann & Andrés Rodríguez‐Pose, 2012. "The Case For Regional Development Intervention: Place‐Based Versus Place‐Neutral Approaches," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 134-152, February.
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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure

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