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From Reagan to Trump: Regional Development Traps and the Remaking of American Electoral Politics

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  • Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés
  • Glisson, Ali

Abstract

This paper examines the territorial reconfiguration of American electoral politics since the 1980s, tracing the remaking of Republican support from Reagan’s 1984 landslide to Trump’s three presidential campaigns (2016, 2020, 2024). Drawing on panel data for every presidential election from 1984 to 2024 across 722 commuting zones, we test whether regional development traps, defined as enduring economic underperformance, explain both the shift from Democrats to Republicans and the Republicans’ internal realignment. Mundlak/Correlated Random Effects estimates show backlash is overwhelmingly driven by structural, not cyclical, decline. Short-term economic fluctuations do not predict Republican swing, while long-run territorial position does so decisively. Voters are not responding to recessions. They are registering alienation from an economic order that has failed their communities for a generation. Trump’s gains concentrated in places persistently left behind, whose peripheral position has become entrenched.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés & Glisson, Ali, 2026. "From Reagan to Trump: Regional Development Traps and the Remaking of American Electoral Politics," CEPR Discussion Papers 22019, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:22019
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure

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