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Inflation in the New EU Countries from Central and Eastern Europe : Theories and panel data estimations

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  • Karsten Staehr

Abstract

This paper seeks to identify factors driving consumer price inflation in the new EU member countries from Central and Eastern Europe. Different theories are discussed, including some of particular importance to economies experiencing high economic growth and rapid structural change. The explanatory power of the theories is tested using panel data estimations based on annual data from 1997 to 2007. Convergence- related factors, including the Balassa-Samuelson and the Bhagwati capital-deepening effects, are important drivers of inflation. Import inflation and, by implication, exchange rate developments have an important impact, while the exchange rate regime is unimportant. Higher government debt and larger revenues are associated with higher inflation. The cyclical position as measured by unemployment, employment changes or the current account balance is found to affect inflation. Food price shocks have large but short-lived effects, while energy price shocks have longer-lasting effects on the inflation rate. Multicollinearity across the explanatory variables makes it difficult to identify the effect of each individual factor

Suggested Citation

  • Karsten Staehr, 2010. "Inflation in the New EU Countries from Central and Eastern Europe : Theories and panel data estimations," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2010-06, Bank of Estonia, revised 26 May 2010.
    • Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2010-06
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lein, Sarah M. & León-Ledesma, Miguel A. & Nerlich, Carolin, 2008. "How is real convergence driving nominal convergence in the new EU Member States?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 227-248, March.
    2. Paul De Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2008. "Exchange Rate Stability, Inflation, and Growth in (South) Eastern and Central Europe," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 530-549, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Novák, Zsuzsanna, 2014. "Monetáris politika, infláció és gazdasági növekedés Kelet-Közép- és Délkelet-Európában [Monetary policy, inflation and economic growth in Central and South Eastern Europe]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 923-942.
    2. Jakšić Saša, 2022. "Modelling Determinants of Inflation in CESEE Countries: Global Vector Autoregressive Approach," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 22(2), pages 137-169, June.
    3. Piotr Lewandowski & Marek Antosiewicz & Jan Baran & Iga Magda & Monika Potoczna & Maciej Lis & Joanna Tyrowicz & Agnieszka Kaminska & Jan Hagemejer & Karol Pogorzelski, 2013. "Employment in Poland 2012. Labour Market During the Recovery from the Crisis," Books and Reports published by IBS, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych, number zwp2012 edited by Piotr Lewandowski & Iga Magda, january.
    4. Moritz Degler & Karsten Staehr, 2021. "Price and income convergence and the dynamic Penn effect in Central and Eastern Europe," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 621-635, August.
    5. Czudaj, Robert, 2011. "P-star in times of crisis - Forecasting inflation for the euro area," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 390-407, September.
    6. Davtyan Azat, 2014. "GMM Estimation and Shapiro-Francia Normality Test: A Case Study of CEE Economies," International Journal of Economic Sciences, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(1), pages 12-26.
    7. Simeon Coleman & Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2023. "Has the current account broken up with its fundamentals in Central and Eastern Europe?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 962-980, January.
    8. Ms. Edda Zoli, 2009. "Commodity Price Volatility, Cyclical Fluctuations, and Convergence: What is Ahead for Inflation in Emerging Europe?," IMF Working Papers 2009/041, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; inflation theories; real and nominal convergence; inflation determinants;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation

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