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Ex-post evaluation of the employment effects of a preferential trade agreement: methodological issues, illustrated with a reference to Chile

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  • Gutiérrez, Gabriel

Abstract

This paper presents a discussion of the major methodological issues relating to some key studies assessing the employment effects of a particular PTA using different methodologies (General and Partial Equilibrium, Gravitational models, Micro simulations, Econometrics using panel data, etc.). In this line, the paper discusses an accounting model for decomposing the ex - post employment performance as related to Latin America Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs), proposing this method to evaluate the Chile - Mexico PTA as an illustration. The paper defines a research agenda using an Employment ex-post performance decomposition model, to disentangle the effects of different forces on changes in employment. Advantages from implementing this proposal include: a) Availability of a method that could be replicated to study the impacts of PTAs in other countries, both regarding output and employment; b) Development of improved databases for bilateral trade analysis and c) Estimation of sectoral capital stocks, which are an important subject of its own right, for development and growth analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Gutiérrez, Gabriel, 2005. "Ex-post evaluation of the employment effects of a preferential trade agreement: methodological issues, illustrated with a reference to Chile," Comercio Internacional 57, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
  • Handle: RePEc:ecr:col025:4399
    Note: Includes bibliography
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    File URL: http://repositorio.cepal.org/handle/11362/4399
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Elena Ianchovichina & Alessandro Nicita & Isidro Soloaga, 2002. "Trade Reform and Poverty: The Case of Mexico," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(7), pages 945-972, July.
    2. Philippa Dee & Jyothi Gali, 2005. "The Trade and Investment Effects of Preferential Trading Arrangements," NBER Chapters,in: International Trade in East Asia, NBER-East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 14, pages 133-176 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Nina Pavcnik, 2002. "Trade Liberalization, Exit, and Productivity Improvements: Evidence from Chilean Plants," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(1), pages 245-276.
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    8. Richardson, J. David, 1971. "Constant-market-shares analysis of export growth," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 227-239, May.
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    13. Rómulo A. Chumacero & Rodrigo Fuentes & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2004. "Chile’s Free Trade Agreements: How Big is The Deal?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 264, Central Bank of Chile.
    14. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2001. "The growth of world trade: tariffs, transport costs, and income similarity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-27, February.
    15. Arvind Panagariya, 2000. "Preferential Trade Liberalization: The Traditional Theory and New Developments," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 287-331, June.
    16. Robert Scollay & John Gilbert, 2000. "Measuring the Gains from APEC Trade Liberalisation: An Overview of CGE Assessments," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 175-197, February.
    17. Ayhan Kose & Christopher M Towe & Guy M Meredith, 2004. "How Has Nafta Affected the Mexican Economy? Review and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 04/59, International Monetary Fund.
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