IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecr/col025/4399.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Ex-post evaluation of the employment effects of a preferential trade agreement: methodological issues, illustrated with a reference to Chile

Author

Listed:
  • Gutiérrez, Gabriel

Abstract

This paper presents a discussion of the major methodological issues relating to some key studies assessing the employment effects of a particular PTA using different methodologies (General and Partial Equilibrium, Gravitational models, Micro simulations, Econometrics using panel data, etc.). In this line, the paper discusses an accounting model for decomposing the ex - post employment performance as related to Latin America Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs), proposing this method to evaluate the Chile - Mexico PTA as an illustration. The paper defines a research agenda using an Employment ex-post performance decomposition model, to disentangle the effects of different forces on changes in employment. Advantages from implementing this proposal include: a) Availability of a method that could be replicated to study the impacts of PTAs in other countries, both regarding output and employment; b) Development of improved databases for bilateral trade analysis and c) Estimation of sectoral capital stocks, which are an important subject of its own right, for development and growth analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Gutiérrez, Gabriel, 2005. "Ex-post evaluation of the employment effects of a preferential trade agreement: methodological issues, illustrated with a reference to Chile," Comercio Internacional 57, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    • Handle: RePEc:ecr:col025:4399
    Note: Includes bibliography
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repositorio.cepal.org/handle/11362/4399
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elena Ianchovichina & Alessandro Nicita & Isidro Soloaga, 2002. "Trade Reform and Poverty: The Case of Mexico," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(7), pages 945-972, July.
    2. Philippa Dee & Jyothi Gali, 2005. "The Trade and Investment Effects of Preferential Trading Arrangements," NBER Chapters,in: International Trade in East Asia, NBER-East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 14, pages 133-176 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Nina Pavcnik, 2002. "Trade Liberalization, Exit, and Productivity Improvements: Evidence from Chilean Plants," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(1), pages 245-276.
    4. Richardson, J David, 1971. "Some Sensitivity Tests for a 'Constant-Market-Shares' Analysis of Export Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(3), pages 300-304, August.
    5. Enrique Ganuza & Samuel Morley & Valeria Piñeiro & Sherman Robinson & Rob Vos, 2005. "Are Export Promotion and Trade Liberalisation Good for Latin America's Poor?," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 23(3), pages 385-403, May.
    6. Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 2002. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 281-316, April.
    7. Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2002. "Trade liberalisation and regional integration: the search for large numbers," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 46(4), pages 1-20.
    8. Richardson, J. David, 1971. "Constant-market-shares analysis of export growth," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 227-239, May.
    9. Néstor Gandelman & Carlos Casacuberta & Gabriela Fachola, 2004. "The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Employment, Capital and Productivity Dynamics:," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 97, Econometric Society.
    10. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1992. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(3), pages 819-863.
    11. Stephen Redding & Anthony Venables, 2004. "Geography and Export Performance: External Market Access and Internal Supply Capacity," NBER Chapters,in: Challenges to Globalization: Analyzing the Economics, pages 95-130 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Edward Balistreri & Russell Hillberry, 2006. "Trade frictions and welfare in the gravity model: how much of the iceberg melts?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(1), pages 247-265, February.
    13. Rómulo A. Chumacero & Rodrigo Fuentes & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2004. "Chile’s Free Trade Agreements: How Big is The Deal?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 264, Central Bank of Chile.
    14. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2001. "The growth of world trade: tariffs, transport costs, and income similarity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-27, February.
    15. Arvind Panagariya, 2000. "Preferential Trade Liberalization: The Traditional Theory and New Developments," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 287-331, June.
    16. Robert Scollay & John Gilbert, 2000. "Measuring the Gains from APEC Trade Liberalisation: An Overview of CGE Assessments," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 175-197, February.
    17. Ayhan Kose & Christopher M Towe & Guy M Meredith, 2004. "How Has Nafta Affected the Mexican Economy? Review and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 04/59, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecr:col025:4399. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Biblioteca CEPAL). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/eclaccl.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.