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The Role of Firm Size in Controlling Output Volatility during the Asian Financial Crisis

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  • Hung-ju Chen; Hsiao-tang Hsu

Abstract

This study sets out to develop a simplified risk premium model to explain output volatility within the economies of Asia in the immediate aftermath of the Asian financial crisis. Firms are allowed to borrow from both domestic and foreign banks, with the firms� debts being loosely constrained (at high levels) prior to the crisis (lending boom) but becoming tightly constrained (at low levels) on the outbreak of the crisis (lending bust). The lending rate is a function of the debt-capital ratio; thus if firms have only limited access to the credit market, then they will accumulate less capital and become small firms. Given their lower collateral, small firms face higher risk premiums which will ultimately lead to a much greater reduction in output when a credit crunch suddenly hits. Our model predicts that small firm size will accelerate unanticipated shocks; therefore, output volatility will be greater in countries with small firms than in those with large firms

Suggested Citation

  • Hung-ju Chen; Hsiao-tang Hsu, 2004. "The Role of Firm Size in Controlling Output Volatility during the Asian Financial Crisis," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 11, Econometric Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecm:nasm04:11
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    File URL: http://repec.org/esNASM04/up.20251.1070246249.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1994. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(2), pages 309-340.
    2. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial crises in emerging markets: a canonical model," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 98-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    3. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October.
    4. Ricardo Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 1998. "Emerging Market Crises: An Asset Markets Perspective," Working papers 98-18, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    5. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
    6. Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Leonardo Auernheimer, 2000. "International Debt and the Price of Domestic Assets," IMF Working Papers 00/177, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2001. "International and domestic collateral constraints in a model of emerging market crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 513-548, December.
    8. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "Currency crises and monetary policy in an economy with credit constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1121-1150.
    9. Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Vegh, 2000. "Delaying the Inevitable: Optimal Interest Rate Policy and BOP Crises," NBER Working Papers 7734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Agenor, P.-R., 1997. "Capital-Market Imperfections and the Macroeconomic Dynamics of Small Indebted Economies," Princeton Studies in International Economics 82, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    11. Aizenman, Joshua, 1989. "Country Risk, Incomplete Information and Taxes on International Borrowing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 147-161, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asian financial crisis; Firm size; Credit constraints; Risk premiums;

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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