A Test of the Martingale Hypothesis
This paper proposes a statistical test of the martingale hypothesis. It can be used to test whether a given time series is a martingale process against certain non-martingale alternatives. The class of alternative processes against which our test has power is very general and it encompasses many nonlinear non-martingale processes which may not be detected using traditional spectrum-based or variance-ratio tests. We look at the hypothesis of martingale, in contrast with other existing methods which test for the hypothesis of martingale difference. Two different types of test are considered: one is a generalized Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and the other is a Cramer-von Mises type test. For the processes that are first order Markovian in mean, in particular, our approach yields the test statistics that neither depend upon any smoothing parameter nor require any resampling procedure to simulate the null distributions. Their null limiting distributions are nicely characterized as functionals of a continuous stochastic process so that the critical values are easily tabulated. We prove consistency of our tests and further investigate their finite sample properties via simulation. Our tests are found to be rather powerful in moderate size samples against a wide variety of non-martingales including exponential autoregressive, threshold autoregressive, markov switching, chaotic, and some of nonstationary processes.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (713) 527-4875
Fax: (713) 285-5278
Web page: http://www.ruf.rice.edu/~econ/papers/index.html
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Donald W. K. Andrews, 1997.
"A Conditional Kolmogorov Test,"
Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1097-1128, September.
- Steven N. Durlauf, 1992.
"Spectral Based Testing of the Martingale Hypothesis,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Durlauf, Steven N., 1991. "Spectral based testing of the martingale hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 355-376, December.
- de Jong, Robert M., 1996. "The Bierens test under data dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 1-32.
- Manuel A. Dominguez & Ignacio N. Lobato, 2001. "A Consistent Test for the Martingale Difference Hypothesis," Working Papers 0101, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
- Park, Joon Y. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 1999.
"Asymptotics For Nonlinear Transformations Of Integrated Time Series,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(03), pages 269-298, June.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park, 1998. "Asymptotics for Nonlinear Transformations of Integrated Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1182, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Deo, Rohit S., 2000. "Spectral tests of the martingale hypothesis under conditional heteroscedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 291-315, December.
- Andrews, Donald W.K., 1988.
"Laws of Large Numbers for Dependent Non-Identically Distributed Random Variables,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(03), pages 458-467, December.
- Andrews, Donald W. K., 1987. "Laws of Large Numbers for Dependent Non-Identically Distributed Random Variables," Working Papers 645, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Bierens, H.J. & Ploberger, W., 1995.
"Asymptotic theory of integrated conditional moment tests,"
1995-124, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Herman J. Bierens & Werner Ploberger, 1997. "Asymptotic Theory of Integrated Conditional Moment Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1129-1152, September.
- Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
- Joon Y. Park & Yoosoon Chang, 2004. "Endogeneity in Nonlinear Regressions with Integrated Time Series," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 594, Econometric Society.
- Chung-Ming Kuan & Wei-Ming Lee, 2003.
"A New Test of the Martingale Difference Hypothesis,"
IEAS Working Paper : academic research
03-A001, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
- Kuan Chung-Ming & Lee Wei-Ming, 2004. "A New Test of the Martingale Difference Hypothesis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(4), pages 1-26, December.
- Stinchcombe, Maxwell B. & White, Halbert, 1998. "Consistent Specification Testing With Nuisance Parameters Present Only Under The Alternative," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(03), pages 295-325, June.
- Enders, Walter & Granger, C. W. J., 1998.
"Unit Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
Staff General Research Papers
1388, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Enders, Walter & Granger, Clive W J, 1998. "Unit-Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 304-11, July.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Enders/Granger JBES(1998)on threshold unit roots," Statistical Software Components RTZ00054, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Bierens, H.J., 1989.
"A consistent conditional moment test of functional form,"
Serie Research Memoranda
0064, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
- Bierens, Herman J, 1990. "A Consistent Conditional Moment Test of Functional Form," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(6), pages 1443-58, November.
- Whang, Yoon-Jae, 2000. "Consistent bootstrap tests of parametric regression functions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 27-46, September.
- Delgado, Miguel A., 1993. "Testing the equality of nonparametric regression curves," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 199-204, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecl:riceco:2004-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.