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A Consistent Test for the Martingale Difference Assumption

  • Ignacio N. Lobato

    (Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico)

This paper considers testing that an economic time series follows a martingale difference process. The martingale difference hypothesis has been typically tested using information contained in the second moments of a process, that is, using test statistics based on the sample autocovariances or in the periodograms. Tests based on these statistics are inconsistent since they just test necessary conditions of the null hypothesis. In this paper we consider tests that are consistent against all fixed alternatives and against Pitman's local alternatives. Since the asymptotic distributions of the tests statistics depend on the data generating process, the tests are implemented using a modification of the wild bootstrap procedure. The paper justifies theoretically the proposed tests and examines their finite sample behavior by means of Monte Carlo experiments. In addition we include an application to exchange rate data.

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Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers with number 0278.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2000
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:wc2000:0278
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  16. Horowitz, Joel L. & Spokoiny, Vladimir G., 1999. "An adaptive, rate-optimal test of a parametric model against a nonparametric alternative," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,10, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  17. Hsieh, David A, 1989. "Testing for Nonlinear Dependence in Daily Foreign Exchange Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 339-68, July.
  18. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1996. "A Conditional Kolmogorov Test," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1111R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  19. Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-33, March.
  20. John Xu Zheng, 1996. "A consistent test of functional form via nonparametric estimation techniques," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 263-289, December.
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  22. de Jong, R.M. & Bierens, H.J., 1994. "On the Limit Behavior of a Chi-Square Type Test if the Number of Conditional Moments Tested Approaches Infinity," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 70-90, March.
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