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A Consistent Test for the Martingale Difference Hypothesis

Author

Listed:
  • Manuel A. Dominguez
  • Ignacio N. Lobato

    (Centro de Investigacion Economica (CIE), Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico (ITAM))

Abstract

This paper considers testing that an economic time series follows a martingale difference process. The martingale difference hypothesis has been typically tested using information contained in the second moments of a process, that is, using test statistics based on the sample autocovariances or in the periodograms. Tests based on these statistics are inconsistent since they just test necessary conditions of the null hypothesis. In this paper we consider tests that are consistent against all fixed alternatives and against Pitman's local alternatives. Since the asymptotic distributions of the tests statistics depend on the data generating process, the tests are implemented using a modification of the wild bootstrap procedure. The paper justifies theoretically the proposed tests and examines their finite sample behavior by means of Monte Carlo experiments. In addition we include an application to exchange rate data.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuel A. Dominguez & Ignacio N. Lobato, 2001. "A Consistent Test for the Martingale Difference Hypothesis," Working Papers 0101, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
    • Handle: RePEc:cie:wpaper:0101
    as

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    File URL: http://ftp.itam.mx/pub/academico/inves/lobato/01-01.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Delgado, Miguel A. & Domínguez, Manuel A. & Lavergne, Pascal, 1998. "Asymptotic and bootstrap specification tests of nonlinear in variable econometric models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 4674, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Escanciano, J. Carlos & Velasco, Carlos, 2006. "Generalized spectral tests for the martingale difference hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 151-185, September.
    2. Escanciano, J. Carlos & Velasco, Carlos, 2006. "Testing the martingale difference hypothesis using integrated regression functions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 2278-2294, December.
    3. Chihwa Kao & Yongmiao Hong, 2004. "Detecting Neglected Nonlinearity in Dynamic Panel Data with Time-Varying Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 753, Econometric Society.
    4. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2012. "Exchange-rate return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from major foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1607-1626.
    5. Escanciano, Juan Carlos & Mayoral, Silvia, 2010. "Data-driven smooth tests for the martingale difference hypothesis," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 1983-1998, August.
    6. Park Joon Y. & Whang Yoon-Jae, 2005. "A Test of the Martingale Hypothesis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-32, June.
    7. George Kapetanios & Andrew P. Blake, 2007. "Testing the Martingale Difference Hypothesis Using Neural Network Approximations," Working Papers 601, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    8. Escanciano, Juan Carlos & Jacho-Chávez, David T., 2010. "Approximating the critical values of Cramér-von Mises tests in general parametric conditional specifications," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 625-636, March.
    9. Juan Carlos Escanciano, 2010. "The Integrated Instrumental Variables Estimator: Exploiting Nonlinearities for Identification of Linear Models," Caepr Working Papers 2010-001, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
    10. Juan Carlos Escanciano, 2005. "On the Asymptotic Power Properties of Specification Tests for Dynamic Parametric Regressions," Faculty Working Papers 07/05, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    nonlinear dependence; nonparametric; correlation; bootstrap;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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