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Investing in the Unknown and Unknowable

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  • Zeckhauser, Richard

    (Harvard U)

Abstract

From David Ricardo making a fortune buying British government bonds on the eve of the Battle of Waterloo to Warren Buffett selling insurance to the California earthquake authority, the wisest investors have earned extraordinary returns by investing in the unknown and the unknowable (UU). But they have done so on a reasoned, sensible basis. This essay explains some of the central principles that such investors employ. It starts by discussing “ignorance,” a widespread situation in the real world of investing, where even the possible states of the world are not known. Traditional finance theory does not apply in UU situations. Strategic thinking, deducing what other investors might know or not, and assessing whether they might be deterred from investing, for example due to fiduciary requirements, frequently point the way to profitability. Most big investment payouts come when money is combined with complementary skills, such as knowing how to develop real estate or new technologies. Those who lack these skills can look for “sidecar” investments that allow them to put their money alongside that of people they know to be both capable and honest. The reader is asked to consider a number of such investments. Central concepts in decision analysis, game theory, and behavioral decision are deployed alongside real investment decisions to unearth successful investment strategies. These strategies are distilled into eight investment maxims. Learning to invest more wisely in a UU world may be the most promising way to significantly bolster your prosperity.

Suggested Citation

  • Zeckhauser, Richard, 2007. "Investing in the Unknown and Unknowable," Working Paper Series rwp07-005, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp07-005
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    Cited by:

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    2. Richard Zeckhauser & W. Viscusi, 2008. "Discounting dilemmas: Editors’ introduction," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 95-106, December.
    3. Pankaj Ghemawat & Bruno Cassiman, 2007. "Introduction to the Special Issue on Strategic Dynamics," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(4), pages 529-536, April.
    4. Kent D. Daniel & Robert B. Litterman & Gernot Wagner, 2016. "Applying Asset Pricing Theory to Calibrate the Price of Climate Risk," NBER Working Papers 22795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Stefan T. Trautmann & Ferdinand M. Vieider & Peter P. Wakker, 2011. "Preference Reversals for Ambiguity Aversion," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(7), pages 1320-1333, July.
    6. Mr. Abbas Mirakhor & Mr. S. Nuri Erbas, 2007. "The Equity Premium Puzzle, Ambiguity Aversion, and Institutional Quality," IMF Working Papers 2007/230, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Subhasish M. Chowdhury & Stephen Martin, 2011. "Innovation Races with the Possibility of Failure," Working Papers 1106, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2011.
    8. V. Yukalov & D. Sornette, 2011. "Decision theory with prospect interference and entanglement," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 70(3), pages 283-328, March.
    9. Frank J. Convery & Gernot Wagner, 2015. "Reflections–Managing Uncertain Climates: Some Guidance for Policy Makers and Researchers," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 9(2), pages 304-320.
    10. Alpaslan Akay & Peter Martinsson & Haileselassie Medhin & Stefan Trautmann, 2012. "Attitudes toward uncertainty among the poor: an experiment in rural Ethiopia," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 73(3), pages 453-464, September.
    11. Mahmud Yesuf & Robert M. Feinberg, 2016. "Ambiguity aversion among student subjects: the role of probability interval and emotional parameters," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 235-238, March.
    12. Roy, Devjani & Zeckhauser, Richard, 2013. "Ignorance: Lessons from the Laboratory of Literature," Working Paper Series rwp13-039, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    13. Rosangela Feola & Valentina Cucino & Roberto Parente, 2021. "How to Develop Collaboration in Drug Development Process: The Role of Professional Service Firms," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 14(4), pages 114-114, April.
    14. PARYS, Wilfried, 2020. "David Ricardo, the Stock Exchange, and the Battle of Waterloo: Samuelsonian legends lack historical evidence," Working Papers 2020009, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    15. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Barham, Bradford L., 2007. "On the Microeconomics of Diversification under Uncertainty and Learning," Staff Papers 92141, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    16. Martin G. Kocher & Stefan T. Trautmann, 2013. "Selection Into Auctions For Risky And Ambiguous Prospects," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 882-895, January.
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    18. Hudik, Marek, 2021. "Push factors of endogenous institutional change," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 504-514.

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