IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20101236.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is the New Keynesian IS curve structural?

Author

Listed:
  • Stracca, Livio

Abstract

There is already a small literature emphasising the empirical failure of the New Keynesian IS curve, but it is not yet known if this failure reflects empirical problems associated with small samples or is rather a structural weakness of the underlying model. To address this question, in this paper I estimate the New Keynesian IS curve for output and consumption and several possible extensions on panel data from 22 OECD countries over 40 years of data. I also evaluate whether the key parameters of the IS curve change according to countries' economic and financial structure. The main finding is that output and consumption are mainly forward looking, and this is a very robust feature of the data. At the same time, I find little evidence in favour of the traditional specification where the real interest rate enters with a negative sign due to intertemporal substitution; on the contrary, it is typically either insignificant or wrongly signed. Overall, I conclude that the New Keynesian IS curve, at least in its most common formulations, is not structural and is overwhelmingly rejected by the data. JEL Classification: E21, E44, E52

Suggested Citation

  • Stracca, Livio, 2010. "Is the New Keynesian IS curve structural?," Working Paper Series 1236, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101236
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1236.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Erceg, Christopher J. & Levin, Andrew T., 2003. "Imperfect credibility and inflation persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 915-944.
    2. Dedola, Luca & Lippi, Francesco, 2005. "The monetary transmission mechanism: Evidence from the industries of five OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, pages 1543-1569.
    3. Luca Benati, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Persistence Across Monetary Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(3), pages 1005-1060.
    4. Charles Calomiris & Stanley D. Longhofer & William Miles, 2009. "The (Mythical?) Housing Wealth Effect," NBER Working Papers 15075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Christopher Erceg & Christopher Gust & David López-Salido, 2007. "The Transmission of Domestic Shocks in Open Economies," NBER Chapters,in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 89-148 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2009. "Are valuation effects desirable from a global perspective?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 170-180.
    7. Angeloni Ignazio & Ehrmann Michael, 2007. "Euro Area Inflation Differentials," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, pages 1-36.
    8. Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith & Ron P. Smith, 2010. "Supply, Demand and Monetary Policy Shocks in a Multi-Country New Keynesian Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 3081, CESifo Group Munich.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Antonio Paradiso & Saten Kumar & B. Bhaskara Rao, 2013. "A New Keynesian IS curve for Australia: is it forward looking or backward looking?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(26), pages 3691-3700, September.
    2. Anari, Ali & Kolari, James, 2016. "Dynamics of interest and inflation rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, pages 129-144.
    3. Kortelainen, Mika & Paloviita, Maritta & Viren, Matti, 2011. "Observed inflation forecasts and the new Keynesian macro model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 88-90, July.
    4. Anna Florio, 2013. "The Implied Consumer Euler Rate: What Role for Financial Frictions?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 59(4), pages 650-675, December.
    5. Heinrichs, Katrin, 2016. "German Consumption Inequality. An evaluation with a focus on the financial crisis," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145891, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Instrumental variables; IS Curve; New Keynesian Model; panel data;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101236. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.