IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbops/2023332.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The effects of high inflation on public finances in the euro area

Author

Listed:
  • Bańkowski, Krzysztof
  • Checherita-Westphal, Cristina
  • Jesionek, Julia
  • Muggenthaler, Philip
  • Frutos, Mario Alloza
  • Avgousti, Aristoklis
  • Briodeau, Clémence
  • Brusbārde, Baiba
  • Caprioli, Francesco
  • Delobbe, Olivier
  • Hickey, Ronan
  • Italianer, Jip
  • Kivistö, Jarkko
  • Kuckuck, Jan
  • Martínez-Pagés, Jorge
  • Palášthyová, Barbora
  • Papaoikonomou, Dimitrios
  • Prammer, Doris
  • Renzi, Fabrizio
  • Roter, Mojca
  • Sant, Kurt
  • Sazedj, Sharmin
  • Schmidt, Katja
  • Schoonackers, Ruben
  • Strazdaite, Viktorija
  • Strojan-Kastelec, Andreja
  • Urke, Katri

Abstract

The recent spike in inflation, unprecedented in the history of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), has had major consequences for all areas of the economy, including public finances. This paper aims to provide a detailed assessment of the effects of high inflation on fiscal accounts in the euro area. Relying on the wealth of expertise in the Eurosystem – within the Working Group on Public Finance – it documents spending indexation arrangements in all euro area countries. Thanks to this knowledge, the ECB’s fiscal projection platform, which is the primary evaluation tool for this study, establishes a realistic link between prices and fiscal variables. The results of this paper bring into question the conventional wisdom on the overall positive effects of inflation on fiscal accounts. Indeed, the simulations point to adverse effects from the recent inflation surge, mainly triggered by an external supply shock, on budget balances during 2022-24. This is even without taking into account the negative impact of inflation on the real economy, mainly through monetary policy tightening. The analysis also points to the important role of the denominator effect for debt-to-GDP ratios, which may fall even in the absence of benefits for the budget balance. Finally, the analysis reveals a high degree of heterogeneity across countries. JEL Classification: C3, E3, E6

Suggested Citation

  • Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Jesionek, Julia & Muggenthaler, Philip & Frutos, Mario Alloza & Avgousti, Aristoklis & Briodeau, Clémence & Brusbārde, Baiba & Caprioli, Francesc, 2023. "The effects of high inflation on public finances in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 332, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2023332
    Note: 2648110
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op332~2dde0481fe.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Morris, Richard & Reiss, Lukas, 2020. "A decomposition of structural revenue developments for euro area member states," Working Paper Series 2455, European Central Bank.
    2. Mika Tujula & Guido Wolswijk, 2007. "Budget balances in OECD countries: what makes them change?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 1-14, March.
    3. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Domingues Semeano, João & Ahonen, Elena & Stinglhamber, Pierrick & Van Parys, Stefan & Clemens, Johannes & Urke, Katri & Soosaar, Orsolya & Vergou, Maria & Flevotomou, , 2022. "Public wage and pension indexation in the euro area: an overview," Occasional Paper Series 299, European Central Bank.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & M. Belen Sbrancia1, 2015. "The liquidation of government debt," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(82), pages 291-333.
    5. Barry Eichengreen & Rui Esteves, 2022. "Up and away? Inflation and debt consolidation in historical perspective," Oxford Open Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 1, pages 1-20.
    6. Friedrich Heinemann, 2001. "After the death of inflation: will fiscal drag survive?," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 22(4), pages 527-546., December.
    7. Pablo Hernández de Cos & Samuel Hurtado & Francisco Martí & Javier J. Pérez, 2016. "Public finances and inflation: the case of Spain," Occasional Papers 1606, Banco de España.
    8. Rey, Hélène & Andreolli, Michele, 2023. "The Fiscal Consequences of Missing an Inflation Target," CEPR Discussion Papers 17826, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Jens Hilscher & Alon Raviv & Ricardo Reis, 2022. "Inflating Away the Public Debt? An Empirical Assessment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 1553-1595.
    10. Christopher J. Neely, 2022. "Inflation and the Real Value of Debt: A Double-edged Sword," On the Economy 94567, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    11. Ichiro Fukunaga & Takuji Komatsuzaki & Hideaki Matsuoka, 2022. "Inflation and public debt reversals in advanced economies," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(1), pages 124-137, January.
    12. Sebastian Beer & Mark Griffiths & Alexander Klemm, 2023. "Tax distortions from inflation: What are they? How to deal with them?," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 47(3), pages 353-386.
    13. Mr. Nicolas End & Mr. Sampawende J Tapsoba & Mr. G. Terrier & Renaud Duplay, 2015. "Deflation and Public Finances: Evidence from the Historical Records," IMF Working Papers 2015/176, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina, 2022. "Public wage and pension indexation in the euro area," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 1.
    15. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2019. "The Fiscal consequences of deflation: Evidence from the Golden Age of Globalization," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 129-147.
    16. D. Cornille & M. Deroose & H. Godefroid & R. Schoonackers & P. Stinglhamber & S. Van Parys, 2023. "The impact of high inflation on Belgian public finances: a simulation exercise," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, pages 1-30, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Briodeau, Clémence & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina, 2023. "Inflation and fiscal policy: is there a threshold effect in the fiscal reaction function?," Working Paper Series 2880, European Central Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ichiro Fukunaga & Takuji Komatsuzaki & Hideaki Matsuoka, 2022. "Inflation and public debt reversals in advanced economies," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(1), pages 124-137, January.
    2. Saungweme Talknice & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2021. "Public debt and inflation dynamics: Empirical evidence from Zimbabwe," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 7(2), pages 14-30, December.
    3. Talknice Saungweme & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, "undated". "Public Debt And Inflation Dynamics: Empirical Evidence From Zimbabwe," Working Papers AESRI05, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI).
    4. Saungweme Talknice & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2021. "Public debt and inflation dynamics: Empirical evidence from Zimbabwe," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 7(2), pages 14-30, December.
    5. Saungweme Talknice & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2021. "Public debt and inflation dynamics: Empirical evidence from Zimbabwe," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 7(2), pages 14-30, December.
    6. Karsten Staehr & Olegs Tkacevs & Katri Urke, 2023. "Fiscal performance under inflation and inflation surprises: evidence from fiscal reaction functions for the Euro Area," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2023-3, Bank of Estonia, revised 20 Jun 2023.
    7. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Reinhart, Vincent & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2015. "Dealing with debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 43-55.
    8. Limodio,Nicola & Strobbe,Francesco, 2016. "Financial regulation and government revenue : the effects of a policy change in Ethiopia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7733, The World Bank.
    9. Marco Bassetto & Thomas J. Sargent, 2020. "Shotgun Wedding: Fiscal and Monetary Policy," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 659-690, August.
    10. Juan Equiza Goni, 2014. "Sovereign Debt Maturity and Debt-to GDP Dynamics in Six Euro Area Countries," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-44, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    11. Equiza-Goñi, Juan, 2016. "Government debt maturity and debt dynamics in euro area countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 292-311.
    12. Busato, Francesco & Varlese, Monica & Ulloa Severino, Claudia, 2022. "Public debt heterogeneity at country level: an empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 113812, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. András Simonovits, 2023. "Unexpected inflation and public pensions: the case of Hungary," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 47(4), pages 505-520.
    14. Das, Piyali & Ghate, Chetan, 2022. "Debt decomposition and the role of inflation: A security level analysis for India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    15. Pallotti, Filippo & Paz-Pardo, Gonzalo & Slacalek, Jiri & Tristani, Oreste & Violante, Giovanni L., 2023. "Who bears the costs of inflation? Euro area households and the 2021–2022 shock," Working Paper Series 2877, European Central Bank.
    16. Olga A. Norkina & Sergey E. Pekarski, 2014. "Optimal Financial Repression," HSE Working papers WP BRP 81/EC/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    17. T. Saungweme & N.M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Public Debt and Inflation Dynamics: Empirical Evidence from Zimbabwe," Working Papers AESRI-2021-07, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI), revised Oct 2021.
    18. Claudio Borio & Marc Farag & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2023. "Tackling the fiscal policy-financial stability nexus," BIS Working Papers 1090, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Bacchetta, Philippe & Perazzi, Elena & van Wincoop, Eric, 2018. "Self-fulfilling debt crises: What can monetary policy do?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 119-134.
    20. Aaron Hedlund, 2015. "Failure to Launch: Housing, Debt Overhang, and the Inflation Option During the Great Recession," Working Papers 1515, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro area; fiscal policy; inflation; macroeconomic simulations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2023332. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.