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After the death of inflation: will fiscal drag survive?

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  • Friedrich Heinemann

Abstract

Declining inflation rates might have negative consequences for tax revenues. Phenomena such as the inflationary bracket creep in a progressive income tax system do not work any longer. With this background, the paper analyses the extent of fiscal drag for OECD countries since 1965. Some consideration of the role of money illusion and indexation in this context lays the theoretical base. A framework is presented that allows for the classification of fiscal structures with regard to the type of fiscal drag. The subsequent econometric panel analysis is performed for total and disaggregated government revenues. The results back theoretical considerations of inflation"s impact on different kinds of taxes, which tends to be positive for individual income taxes and social security contributions and is negative for corporate income taxation. The paper concludes that both declining inflation and changing tax structures limit the potential for future fiscal drag.

Suggested Citation

  • Friedrich Heinemann, 2001. "After the death of inflation: will fiscal drag survive?," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 22(4), pages 527-546., December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ifs:fistud:v:22:y:2001:i:4:p:527-546.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alari Paulus & Holly Sutherland & Iva Tasseva, 2020. "Indexing Out of Poverty? Fiscal Drag and Benefit Erosion in Cross‐National Perspective," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 66(2), pages 311-333, June.
    2. Edoardo Beretta, 2020. "The fourfold relation between the essence of money, inflation, bubbles and debt—A theoretical macrofounded analysis," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 49(3), September.
    3. Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman, 2008. "Corporation tax buoyancy and revenue elasticity in the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 24-37, January.
    4. Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Jesionek, Julia & Muggenthaler, Philip & Frutos, Mario Alloza & Avgousti, Aristoklis & Briodeau, Clémence & Brusbārde, Baiba & Caprioli, Francesc, 2023. "The effects of high inflation on public finances in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 332, European Central Bank.
    5. Sanz Labrador, Ismael & Sanz-Sanz, José Félix, 2013. "Política fiscal y crecimiento económico: consideraciones microeconómicas y relaciones macroeconómicas," Macroeconomía del Desarrollo 5367, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    6. Callan, Tim & Keane, Claire & Regan, Mark, 2019. "Assessing the distributional impact of budgetary policy: the role of benchmarks and indexation," Papers BP2020/2, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    7. Wieschemeyer, Matthias & Süssmuth, Bernd, 2019. "Progressive tax-like effects of inflation: Fact or myth? The U.S. post-war experience," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203634, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Hechtner, Frank & Massarrat-Mashhadi, Nima & Sielaff, Christian, 2012. "Eine Analyse zur Einkommensteuerbelastung und Wirkung der kalten Progression der vergangenen 20 Jahre in Deutschland," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 137, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    9. John Creedy & Norman Gemmell, 2010. "Modelling Corporation Tax Revenue," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13695.
    10. David Fielding, 2011. "New Zealand: The Last Bastion of Textbook Open-Economy Macroeconomics," Working Papers 1105, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2011.
    11. John Creedy & José Félix Sanz?Sanz, 2010. "Modelling Personal Income Taxation in Spain:Revenue Elasticities and Regional Comparisons," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1097, The University of Melbourne.
    12. Sven Langedijk & Aurélien Poissonnier & Edouard Turkisch, 2023. "The impact of macroeconomic developments and imbalances on fiscal outcomes," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(6), pages 1-29, June.
    13. Westerheide, Peter, 2006. "Nachgelagerte Besteuerung privater Altersvorsorgeaufwendungen: Auswirkungen auf die Alterseinkommen ausgewählter Haushaltstypen," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-090, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    14. Süssmuth, Bernd & Wieschemeyer, Matthias, 2017. "Progressive tax-like effects of inflation: Fact or myth? The U.S. post-war experience," IWH Discussion Papers 33/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    15. Golpe, Antonio A. & Sánchez-Fuentes, A. Jesus & Vides, José Carlos, 2023. "Fiscal sustainability, monetary policy and economic growth in the Euro Area: In search of the ultimate causal path," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1026-1045.
    16. Altemeyer-Bartscher, Martin & Zeddies, Götz, 2017. "Bracket creeps: Bane or boon for the stability of numerical budget rules?," IWH Discussion Papers 29/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2017.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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