Reverse Mortgages as Retirement Financing Instrument : An Option for Ã¢â‚¬Å“Asset-rich and Cash-poorÃ¢â‚¬Â Singaporeans
The unique way of financing housing through the mandatory savings system in Singapore has created a class of asset-rich and cash-poor Singaporeans. This paper provides a framework to assess the viability of a reverse mortgage (RM) market so that such instruments may be harnessed as a source of financing retirement income for home owners. Based on different cost of capital, we estimate the probability of loss for both the private supplier and public provider of RMs. The probability of loss is computed by three major components : choice of replacement ratio and property growth rate; forecast of cohort survival probability by joint-life; and generation of yield curves to discount the future cash flows. The stochastic forecast of survival probability is estimated using the Lee-Carter demographic model based on the abridged life tables. The discount factor for future cash flows are generated from stochastic interest rates. Our simulation results indicate that based on the benchmark scenario, RM instruments by private providers are likely to achieve about 50% replacement ratio for the 4-room public housing owners. However, the market may be missing if a replacement ratio of 70% is required.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: JG Crawford Building #13, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, Australian National University, ACT 0200|
Web page: http://www.eaber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Christopher J. Mayer & Katerina V. Simons, 1994. "Reverse Mortgages and the Liquidity of Housing Wealth," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 22(2), pages 235-255.
- Chia, Ngee Choon & Tsui, Albert K. C., 2003. "Life annuities of compulsory savings and income adequacy of the elderly in Singapore," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(01), pages 41-65, March.
- Ruth Hancock, 1998. "Can housing wealth alleviate poverty among Britain's older population?," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 249-272, August.
- Marie-Eve Lachance & Olivia S. Mitchell & Kent Smetters, 2003.
"Guaranteeing Defined Contribution Pensions: The Option to Buy Back a Defined Benefit Promise,"
Journal of Risk & Insurance,
The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 70(1), pages 1-16.
- Marie-Eve Lachance & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2002. "Guaranteeing Defined Contribution Pensions: The Option to Buy-Back a Defined Benefit Promise," NBER Working Papers 8731, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mitchell, Olivia S. & Piggott, John, 2004.
"Unlocking housing equity in Japan,"
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,
Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 466-505, December.
- Nandinee K. Kutty, 1998. "The Scope for Poverty Alleviation among Elderly Home-owners in the United States through Reverse Mortgages," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 35(1), pages 113-129, January.
- Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
- Sally R. Merrill & Meryl Finkel & Nandinee K. Kutty, 1994. "Potential Beneficiaries from Reverse Mortgage Products for Elderly Homeowners: An Analysis of American Housing Survey Data," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 22(2), pages 257-299.
- Ngee-Choon Chia & Albert K C Tsui, 2005.
"Medical Savings Accounts in Singapore : How much is adequate?,"
Finance Working Papers
22567, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Chia, Ngee-Choon & Tsui, Albert K.C., 2005. "Medical savings accounts in Singapore: how much is adequate?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 855-875, September.
- Ngee-Choon Chia & Albert K C Tsui, 2005. "Medical Savings Accounts in Singapore: How much is adequate?," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 0502, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE.
- McCARTHY, DAVID & MITCHELL, OLIVIA S. & PIGGOTT, JOHN, 2002. "Asset rich and cash poor: retirement provision and housing policy in Singapore," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(03), pages 197-222, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eab:financ:22566. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shiro Armstrong)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.