IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eab/financ/22458.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Underpriced Default Spread Exacerbates Market Crashes

Author

Listed:
  • Winston T.H. Koh

    (SMU)

  • Roberto S. Mariano
  • Andrey Pavlovb
  • Sock Yong Phang
  • Augustine H. H. Tan
  • Susan M. Wachter

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a specific observable symptom of a banking system that underprices the default spread in non-recourse asset-backed lending. Using three different data sets for 18 countries and property types, we find that, following a negative demand shock, the underpricing economies experience far deeper asset market crashes than economies in which the put option is correctly priced. Furthermore, only one of the countries in our sample continues to exhibit the underpricing symptom following a market crash. This indicates that market crashes have a cleansing effect and eliminate underpricing at least for a period of time. This makes investing in such markets safer following a negative demand shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Winston T.H. Koh & Roberto S. Mariano & Andrey Pavlovb & Sock Yong Phang & Augustine H. H. Tan & Susan M. Wachter, 2006. "Underpriced Default Spread Exacerbates Market Crashes," Finance Working Papers 22458, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:eab:financ:22458
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.eaber.org/node/22458
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Krainer & Chishen Wei, 2004. "House prices and fundamental value," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct1.
    2. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998. "Optimal Financial Crises," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1245-1284, August.
    3. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard Peach, 2004. "Are home prices the next "bubble"?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-17.
    4. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
    5. Richard J. Herring & Susan Wachter, 1999. "Real Estate Booms and Banking Busts: An International Perspective," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 99-27, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    6. Franklin Allen, 2001. "Presidential Address: Do Financial Institutions Matter?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1165-1175, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Richard Green & Roberto Mariano & Andrey Pavlov & Susan Wachter, 2009. "Misaligned Incentives and Mortgage Lending in Asia," NBER Chapters,in: Financial Sector Development in the Pacific Rim, East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 18, pages 95-111 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Andrey Pavlov & Susan Wachter, 2009. "Mortgage Put Options and Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 89-103, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    real estate bubble; lender optimism; disaster myopia; Asian financial crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eab:financ:22458. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shiro Armstrong). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/eaberau.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.