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When birth spacing does and does not matter for child survival: an international comparison using the DHS

Author

Listed:
  • Joseph Molitoris
  • Kieron J. Barclay

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Martin Kolk

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

Abstract

A large body of research has found an association between short birth intervals and the risk of infant mortality in developing countries, but recent work from highly developed countries has called these claims into question, arguing that previous estimates have been biased by a failure to adequately control for unobserved heterogeneity. This study addresses this issue by estimating within-family models on a sample of 4.5 million births from 77 countries at various levels of development. We show that even after controlling for unobserved maternal heterogeneity, intervals less than 24 months substantially increase the probability of infant death, and this relationship is present in all countries in our analysis. We do show, however, that the importance of birth intervals as a determinant of infant mortality varies inversely with maternal education. Finally, we demonstrate that the mortality-reducing effects of longer birth intervals are strong at low levels of development but decline steadily towards zero as populations become healthier and wealthier. These findings offer a clear way to reconcile previous research showing that birth intervals are important for infant mortality in low-income countries, but much less consequential in high-income settings.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph Molitoris & Kieron J. Barclay & Martin Kolk, 2018. "When birth spacing does and does not matter for child survival: an international comparison using the DHS," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2018-003, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2018-003
    DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2018-003
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kieron J. Barclay & Martin Kolk, 2017. "The Long-Term Cognitive and Socioeconomic Consequences of Birth Intervals: A Within-Family Sibling Comparison Using Swedish Register Data," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(2), pages 459-484, April.
    2. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1980. "Testing the Quantity-Quality Fertility Model: The Use of Twins as a Natural Experiment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 227-240, January.
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    8. John B. Casterline & Colin Odden, 2016. "Trends in Inter-Birth Intervals in Developing Countries 1965–2014," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 42(2), pages 173-194, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ray Miller & Mahesh Karra, 2020. "Birth Spacing and Child Health Trajectories," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 46(2), pages 347-371, June.
    2. Kieron Barclay & Anna Baranowska-Rataj & Martin Kolk & Anneli Ivarsson, 2020. "Interpregnancy intervals and perinatal and child health in Sweden: A comparison within families and across social groups," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 74(3), pages 363-378, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    birth spacing; demographic and health surveys; infant mortality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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