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Union formation and fertility in Bulgaria and Russia: a life table description of recent trends

Author

Listed:
  • Dimiter Philipov

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Aiva Jasilioniene

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

Abstract

The paper provides an extensive descriptive analysis and comparison of recent trends in union formation and fertility in Bulgaria and Russia. The analysis is based on data from the Generation and Gender Surveys (GGS) carried out in 2004. We generate a large number of single- and multi-decrement life tables describing various life course events: leaving home and separation from the parental family, entry into union, first and second childbirth, divorce. In addition, we provide information about the status of children within the family and changes in this status. Life tables are constructed for real cohorts as well as for synthetic cohorts. We study four real cohorts, born in 1940-44, 1950-54, 1960-64 and 1970-74. Synthetic-cohort life tables are constructed for three periods of time, referring to the pre-transitional demographic situation (1985-1989), the beginning of the transition (1990-1994) and recent demographic developments (1999-2003). We use the same approach of life table construction as Andersson and Philipov (2002), thus both studies complement each other and open wider opportunities for international comparison. Life tables are frequently supplemented with graphs of smoothed hazard curves. Complete life tables together with some summary indicators are presented in the Appendix. Our findings suggest that societal transformation had a stronger impact on the family-related behavior in the Bulgarian population than in the population of Russia. There is evidence that in some aspects Bulgaria is lagging behind other former socialist and Western European countries where the second demographic transition is more advanced. Evidence also suggests that Russia is lagging behind Bulgaria. However, certain specific features distinctive to Russia, such as the low level of childlessness and a drastic drop in second and subsequent births, lead us to think that Russia may have a model of change particular to the country.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimiter Philipov & Aiva Jasilioniene, 2007. "Union formation and fertility in Bulgaria and Russia: a life table description of recent trends," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2007-005, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-005
    DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hans‐Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "The Emergence of Lowest‐Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(4), pages 641-680, December.
    2. Maria Winkler-Dworak & Henriette Engelhardt, 2004. "On the tempo and quantum of first marriages in Austria, Germany, and Switzerland," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 10(9), pages 231-264.
    3. Francesco C. Billari & Dimiter Philipov & Pau Baizán Munoz, 2001. "Leaving home in Europe: the experience of cohorts born around 1960," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2001-014, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    4. Vincenzo Coviello & May Boggess, 2004. "Cumulative incidence estimation in the presence of competing risks," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 4(2), pages 103-112, June.
    5. repec:cai:poeine:pope_304_0451 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sunnee Billingsley, 2011. "Second and Third Births in Armenia and Moldova: An Economic Perspective of Recent Behaviour and Current Preferences [Deuxième et troisième naissance en Arménie et en Moldavie: Une approche économiq," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 27(2), pages 125-155, May.
    2. Aiva Jasilioniene, 2007. "Premarital conception and divorce risk in Russia in light of the GGS data," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2007-025, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    3. Leonardo Menchini & Sheila Marnie, 2007. "Demographic Challenges and the Implications for Children in CEE/CIS," Papers inwopa07/47, Innocenti Working Papers.
    4. Dimiter Philipov & Aiva Jasilioniene, 2008. "Union formation and fertility in Bulgaria and Russia: A life table description of recent trends," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(62), pages 2057-2114.
    5. Dora Kostova, 2007. "The emergence of cohabitation in a transitional socio-economic context: Evidence from Bulgaria and Russia," Demográfia, Hungarian Demographic Research Institute, vol. 50(5), pages 135-162.
    6. Jan M. Hoem & Dora Kostova & Aiva Jasilioniene & Cornelia Mureşan, 2009. "Traces of the Second Demographic Transition in Four Selected Countries in Central and Eastern Europe: Union Formation as a Demographic Manifestation," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 25(3), pages 239-255, August.
    7. Tomáš Sobotka, 2008. "Overview Chapter 6: The diverse faces of the Second Demographic Transition in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(8), pages 171-224.
    8. Brienna Perelli-Harris, 2014. "How Similar are Cohabiting and Married Parents? Second Conception Risks by Union Type in the United States and Across Europe," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 437-464, November.
    9. Jan M. Hoem & Dora Kostova, 2007. "Early traces of the Second Demographic Transition in Bulgaria: a joint analysis of marital and non-marital union formation," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2007-020, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    10. Christos Bagavos & Cleon Tsimbos & Georgia Verropoulou, 2008. "Native and Migrant Fertility Patterns in Greece: A Cohort Approach," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 24(3), pages 245-263, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bulgaria; Russian Federation; family formation; fertility; life tables;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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