IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cyb/wpaper/2022-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimation of the Medium-Term Macroeconomic Impact of the Cyprus Recovery and Resilience Plan

Author

Listed:
  • Chrystalleni Aristidou

    (Central Bank of Cyprus)

  • Aris Avgousti

    (Central Bank of Cyprus)

  • Niki Papadopoulou

    (Central Bank of Cyprus)

Abstract

This paper estimates the medium-term macroeconomic impact of the fscal stimulus of the Cyprus Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP) under various scenarios, by using the CYMCM, a semi-structural macroeconometric model of the Cyprus economy developed by CBC sta?. Scenarios di?er in their assumptions about the extent to which the expenditure measures included in the RRP are additional to the ones planned or expected prior to the agreement for a recovery plan for Europe. The analysis takes into account the data of the published Cyprus RRP and makes prudent assumptions on the additivity of RRP expenditure measures. In the scenario in which all RRP-related spending is used for additional measures to the ones planned ( full additivity scenario), the simulations show that the expected impact on real GDP level is around 0.71 percent and for HICP in?ation 0.08 percentage points. The expected impact on employment is 0.22 percent, while public debt-to-GDP is expected to decrease by 0.75 percentage points. In the scenario in which spending under the RRP is partially used for additional measures ( partial additivity scenario), which is considered a more realistic scenario in this paper, the simulations show that the expected impact on real GDP level is around 0.58 percent and for in?ation 0.06 percentage points. The impact on employment is 0.18 percent and the reduction in public debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to be around 1.25 percentage points. The results are based only on the fscal stimulus of the Cyprus RRP, as the analysis does not incorporate spillover e?ects of NGEU measures in other EU countries or additional productivity gains due to reforms. Nevertheless, the analysis indicates that implementation of the RRP will have a meaningful impact on the Cyprus economy in the medium-term. Overall, the results of this paper are comparable to the results of other studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Chrystalleni Aristidou & Aris Avgousti & Niki Papadopoulou, 2022. "Estimation of the Medium-Term Macroeconomic Impact of the Cyprus Recovery and Resilience Plan," Working Papers 2022-4, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    • Handle: RePEc:cyb:wpaper:2022-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.centralbank.cy/images/media/pdf/Estimation-of-the-Medium-Term-Macroeconomic-Impact-of-the-CY-Recovery-and-Resilience-Plan.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Janos Varga & Werner Roeger & Jan in ’t Veld, 2021. "E-QUEST – A Multi-Region Sectoral Dynamic General Equilibrium Model with Energy Model Description and Applications to Reach the EU Climate Targets," European Economy - Discussion Papers 146, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    2. Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Pisani, M., 2012. "The EAGLE. A model for policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1686-1714.
    3. Elias Giannakis & Theofanis P. Mamuneas, 2018. "Sectoral linkages and economic crisis: An input-output analysis of the Cypriot economy," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 12(1), pages 28-40, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bartocci, Anna & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2024. "“Green” fiscal policy measures and nonstandard monetary policy in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    2. Elias Giannakis & Sophia Efstratoglou & Artemis Antoniades, 2018. "Off-Farm Employment and Economic Crisis: Evidence from Cyprus," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-11, March.
    3. Andrea Gerali & Alberto Locarno & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2015. "Every cloud has a silver lining. The sovereign crisis and Italian potential output," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1010, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Elias Giannakis & Theofanis P. Mamuneas, 2022. "Sectoral demand-driven and supply-driven input-output multipliers in Cyprus," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, June.
    5. Lorenzo Burlon & Paolo D'Imperio, 2019. "The euro-area output gap through the lens of a DSGE model," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 477, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Fanny Henriet & Yannick Kalantzis & Matthieu Lemoine & Noëmie Lisack & Harri Turunen, 2025. "Bridging the Gap in Macroeconomic Analysis of the Energy Transition: Combining Medium-and Long-Term Approaches," Working papers 1000, Banque de France.
    7. A team of the Working Group on Econometric Modelling of the European System of Central Banks, 2012. "Competitiveness and external imbalances within the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 139, European Central Bank.
    8. Anton I. Votinov & Julia A. Polshchikova & Karen A. Nersisyan, 2025. "Macroeconomic Modeling in Post-pandemic Times," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 1, pages 62-73, February.
    9. Anna Bartocci & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2022. "Covid-19 Shock and Fiscal-Monetary Policy Mix in a Monetary Union," Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics, in: Luigi Paganetto (ed.), Economic Challenges for Europe After the Pandemic, pages 233-266, Springer.
    10. Burlon, L. & Gerali, A. & Notarpietro, A. & Pisani, M., 2018. "Non-standard monetary policy, asset prices and macroprudential policy in a monetary union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 25-53.
    11. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Kolasa, Marcin & Makarski, Krzysztof, 2015. "A penalty function approach to occasionally binding credit constraints," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 315-327.
    12. Stähler, Nikolai & Thomas, Carlos, 2012. "FiMod — A DSGE model for fiscal policy simulations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 239-261.
    13. Shane Byrne & Kenneth Devine & Michael King & Yvonne McCarthy & Christopher Palmer, 2023. "The Last Mile of Monetary Policy: Inattention, Reminders, and the Refinancing Channel," NBER Working Papers 31043, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Pisani, M., 2012. "The EAGLE. A model for policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1686-1714.
    15. López, Lucia & Odendahl, Florens & Parraga Rodriguez, Susana & Silgado-Gómez, Edgar, 2024. "The pass-through to inflation of gas price shocks," Working Paper Series 2968, European Central Bank.
    16. in 't Veld, Jan & Kollmann, Robert & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner, 2014. "International capital flows and the boom-bust cycle in Spain," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 314-335.
    17. Sandra Gomes & Pascal Jacquinot & Matthias Mohr & Massimiliano Pisani, 2013. "Structural Reforms and Macroeconomic Performance in the Euro Area Countries: A Model-Based Assessment," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 23-44, February.
    18. Mario Alloza & Marien Ferdinandusse & Pascal Jacquinot & Katja Schmidt, 2020. "Fiscal expenditure spillovers in the euro area: An empirical and model-based assessment," Occasional Papers 2012, Banco de España.
    19. Pietro Cova & Patrizio Pagano & Massimiliano Pisani, 2014. "Foreign exchange reserve diversification and the "exorbitant privilege"," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 964, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    20. Weitzel, Matthias & Vandyck, Toon & Rey Los Santos, Luis & Tamba, Marie & Temursho, Umed & Wojtowicz, Krzysztof, 2023. "A comprehensive socio-economic assessment of EU climate policy pathways," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 204(PA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cyb:wpaper:2022-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anna Markidou (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbcgvcy.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.