IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cxs/wpaper/202505.html

Accounting for South Africa's remarkable growth deterioration and how growth can be restored

Author

Listed:
  • Roy Havemann

Abstract

Uses a growth accounting framework to analyse the decline in South Africa's economic growth over the past two decades. The study highlights weak productivity and investment as the main drivers of the slowdown.

Suggested Citation

  • Roy Havemann, 2025. "Accounting for South Africa's remarkable growth deterioration and how growth can be restored," Research Notes 202505, Bureau for Economic Research Impumelelo Growth Lab.
    • Handle: RePEc:cxs:wpaper:202505
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ber.ac.za/Documents/ViewMode/2d02641b-5719-4876-ab20-209e2a0668ef
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ricardo Hausmann & Federico Sturzenegger & Patricio Goldstein & Frank Muci & Douglas Barrios, 2022. "Macroeconomic risks after a decade of microeconomic turbulence: South Africa (2007-2020)," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-3, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Christopher Loewald & David Faulkner & Konstantin Makrelov, 2020. "Time consistency and economic growth: A case study of South African macroeconomic policy," ERSA Working Paper Series 842, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    3. Christopher Loewald & David Faulkner & Konstantin Makrelov, "undated". "Time consistency and economic growth: A case study of South African macroeconomic policy," ERSA Working Paper Series v::y:2020:i::id:84, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    4. Hylton Hollander & Roy Havemann, 2021. "South Africa’s 2003–2013 credit boom and bust: Lessons for macroprudential policy," Economic History of Developing Regions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 339-365, May.
    5. Nicholas Bloom & Philip Bunn & Paul Mizen & Pawel Smietanka & Gregory Thwaites, 2025. "The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 107(1), pages 28-41, January.
    6. Andrew Kerr & Martin Wittenberg, 2019. "Earnings and employment microdata in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-47, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Theo Janse van Rensburg & Kgotso Morema, 2023. "Reflections on loadshedding and potential GDP," Occasional Bulletin of Economic Notes 11048, South African Reserve Bank.
    8. Christopher Loewald & David Faulkner & Konstantin Makrelov, 2020. "Time consistency and economic growth a case study of south african macroeconomic policy," Working Papers 10421, South African Reserve Bank.
    9. Havemann, Roy & Hollander, Hylton, 2024. "Fiscal policy in times of fiscal stress (or what to do when r > g)," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(5), pages 1020-1054.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shaun de Jager & Chris Loewald & Konstantin Makrelov & Xolani Sibande, 2022. "Leaningagainstthewindwithfiscalandmonetarypolicy," Working Papers 11033, South African Reserve Bank.
    2. Graham, James & Ozbilgin, Murat, 2021. "Age, industry, and unemployment risk during a pandemic lockdown," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Lalinsky, Tibor & Meriküll, Jaanika & Lopez-Garcia, Paloma, 2024. "Productivity-enhancing reallocation during the Covid-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2947, European Central Bank.
    4. Dany Brouillette & Guyllaume Faucher & Martin Kuncl & Austin McWhirter & Youngmin Park, 2021. "Production potentielle et taux neutre au Canada : mise à jour de 2021," Staff Analytical Notes 2021-6fr, Bank of Canada.
    5. Athira, A. & Ramesh, Vishnu K., 2023. "COVID-19 and corporate tax avoidance: International evidence," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(4).
    6. Hylton Hollander, 2024. "Debt-financed fiscal stimulus in South Africa," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(1), pages 87-112, January.
    7. Janice Eberly & John G. Fernald, 2022. "Jackson Hole 2022 - Reassessing Economic Constraints: Potential Output (The Impact of COVID on Productivity and Potential Output)," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, August.
    8. Garcia-Macia, Daniel & Korosteleva, Julia, 2025. "Tracing productivity growth channels in the UK," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(1).
    9. Khwazi Magubane, 2024. "Exploring causal interactions between macroprudential policy and financial cycles in South Africa," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 13(5), pages 513-531, July.
    10. Bighelli, Tommaso & Lalinsky, Tibor & Vanhala, Juuso, 2023. "Cross-country evidence on the allocation of COVID-19 government subsidies and consequences for productivity," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    11. Kai Fischer & J. James Reade & W. Benedikt Schmal, 2021. "The Long Shadow of an Infection: COVID-19 and Performance at Work," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2021-17, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    12. Tomiura, Eiichi & Kumanomido, Hiroshi, 2023. "Impacts of inter-firm relations on the adoption of remote work: Evidence from a survey in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    13. Chen, Yutong & Debnath, Sisir & Sekhri, Sheetal & Sekhri, Vishal, 2023. "The impact of Covid-19 containment lockdowns on MSMEs in India and resilience of exporting firms," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 320-341.
    14. Kishan Shah, 2022. "Diagnosing South Africa’s High Unemployment and Low Informality," CID Working Papers 138a, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    15. Wang, Lipeng & Zhang, Mengyu & Verousis, Thanos, 2021. "The road to economic recovery: Pandemics and innovation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    16. Ali, Mohammed & Evans, Steve, 2025. "The impact of best practice on energy efficiency in industrial decarbonization policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    17. John G. Fernald & Huiyu Li, 2022. "The Impact of COVID on Productivity and Potential Output," Working Paper Series 2022-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    18. Sarb, 2023. "Occasional Bulletin of Economic Notes 2301 combined," Occasional Bulletin of Economic Notes 11043, South African Reserve Bank.
    19. Wankeun Oh & Seung Won Kang, 2022. "Attribution of Changes in Vietnam’s Labor Productivity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-19, May.
    20. Bart van Ark, 2021. "Putting Together the Pieces of the Productivity Puzzle: Review Article of Productivity Perspectives and Productivity and the Pandemic," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 40, pages 118-133, Spring.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cxs:wpaper:202505. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roy Havemann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/besunza.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.