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Term premium and equity premium in economies with habit formation

  • Díaz, Antonia
  • Budria, Santiago

In this paper we investigate the size of the risk premium and the term premium in an representative agent exchange model economy where households preferences are subject to habit formation. As a novel feature, we develop theoretical measures for risk premium and term premium that can be used even when the consumption growth process is serially autocorrelated. We find that habit formation increases risk aversion significantly but increases much more the aversion to variations of consumption across dates. This induces a substantial increase in the precautionary demand of short term assets and a significant fall in the precautionary demand of long term assets. As a result, the term premium increases substantially with habit formation. Next we calibrate our model economy and examine the quantitative predictions of our theoretical measures of equity premium, risk premium and term premium. In line with previous literature, we show that it is possible to find a reasonable calibration for which the equity premium is that observed in the data. However, we find that around 70 percent of the equity premium is just term premium. That is, a very large fraction of the increase in the equity premium is due to the asymmetric effect that habit formation has on the precautionary demand of an asset depending on its maturity.

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Paper provided by Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía in its series UC3M Working papers. Economics with number we065522.

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Date of creation: Sep 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cte:werepe:we065522
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.eco.uc3m.es/

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  1. Boldrin, Michele & Christiano, Lawrence J. & Fisher, Jonas D.M., 1997. "Habit Persistence And Asset Returns In An Exchange Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(02), pages 312-332, June.
  2. Lettau, Martin & Uhlig, Harald, 2002. "The Sharpe Ratio And Preferences: A Parametric Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(02), pages 242-265, April.
  3. Lettau, M. & Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 1995. "Can Habit Formation be Reconciled with Business Cycle Facts?," Discussion Paper 1995-54, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  4. Jody Overland & Christopher D. Carroll & David N. Weil, 2000. "Saving and Growth with Habit Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 341-355, June.
  5. Backus, David K. & Gregory, Allan W. & Zin, Stanley E., 1989. "Risk premiums in the term structure : Evidence from artificial economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 371-399, November.
  6. Cochrane, John H. & Campbell, John, 1999. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Scholarly Articles 3119444, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  7. Abel, Andrew B., 1999. "Risk premia and term premia in general equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 3-33, February.
  8. Andrew B. Abel, . "Asset Prices Under Habit Formation and Catching Up With the Jones," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 1-90, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  9. Josep Pijoan-Mas, 2007. "Pricing Risk in Economies with Heterogeneous Agents and Incomplete Markets," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(5), pages 987-1015, 09.
  10. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 1995. "The equity premium: it's still a puzzle," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 102, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  11. Jeffery D. Amato & Thomas Laubach, 2001. "Implications of habit formation for optimal monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Otrok, Christopher & Ravikumar, B. & Whiteman, Charles H., 2002. "Habit formation: a resolution of the equity premium puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1261-1288, September.
  13. Federico Ravenna & University of California & Juha Seppala & University of Illinois, 2006. "Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 197, Society for Computational Economics.
  14. Bennett T. McCallum, 2005. "Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 1-21.
  15. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
  16. Díaz, Antonia & Ríos Rull, José Víctor & Pijoan Mas, Josep, 2001. "Habit formation: implications for the wealth distribution," UC3M Working papers. Economics we015114, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
  17. Lawrence J. Christiano & Michele Boldrin & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2001. "Habit Persistence, Asset Returns, and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 149-166, March.
  18. Albert Marcet & Guido Lorenzoni, 1998. "The Parameterized Expectations Approach: Some Practical Issues," QM&RBC Codes 128, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
  19. repec:cup:macdyn:v:6:y:2002:i:2:p:242-65 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. G. Constantinides, 1990. "Habit formation: a resolution of the equity premium puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1397, David K. Levine.
  21. Gruber, Joseph W., 2004. "A present value test of habits and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1495-1507, October.
  22. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2000. "Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications for Monetary-Policy Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 367-390, June.
  23. David A. Chapman, 2002. "Does Intrinsic Habit Formation Actually Resolve the Equity Premium Puzzle?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(3), pages 618-645, July.
  24. Albert Marcet & Guido Lorenzoni, 1998. "Parameterized expectations approach; Some practical issues," Economics Working Papers 296, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  25. repec:dgr:kubcen:199554 is not listed on IDEAS
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