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Modelling Investment Optimization on Smallholder Farms through Multi-criteria Decision Approaches: An Example from Ethiopia

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  • William Seitz
  • D La Torre

Abstract

We use data from the Ethiopia Rural Household Survey and the Ethiopian Central Statistics Agency to demonstrate a set of techniques for estimating optimal investment allocation in smallholder farming. The approaches treat farming tasks, constraints, and investments as a portfolio problem, characterized by multiple competing objectives. We formulate several versions of the multi-objective problem and solve them in three alternative ways; 1) using standard Markowitz portfolio optimization, 2) using a weighted goal programming model, and 3) a multi-horizon mean variance goal programming model, estimating all model parameters using real data. The main benefit of the goal programming formulation is the possibility to simplify in a single criterion problem complex situations in which the Decision Maker (DM) faces a trade-off between two or more objectives. We discuss the importance of portfolio allocations for smallholder farmers in minimizing risk and increasing return, and discuss how these approaches provide a framework that can be extended to practical applications in smallholder farming.

Suggested Citation

  • William Seitz & D La Torre, 2014. "Modelling Investment Optimization on Smallholder Farms through Multi-criteria Decision Approaches: An Example from Ethiopia," CSAE Working Paper Series 2014-06, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2014-06
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    References listed on IDEAS

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