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Interest Rates, Growth and External Debt: The Macroeconomic Impact of Mexico's Brady Deal

Author

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  • Claessens, Stijn
  • Oks, Danel
  • van Wijnbergen, Sweder

Abstract

Interest rates fell sharply after Mexico's Brady deal, and private investment and growth recovered. We show, econometrically, that debt relief influenced the macroeconomy mostly though its favourable impact on uncertainty. While the impact of the variability of the future net transfer is significant, the impact of the net transfer itself is not. Specifically the favourable impact on uncertainty about future exchange rate crises is the dominant explanation of the macroeconomic response to debt relief. These results confirm the beneficial macroeconomic effects of debt relief, but reject the debt overhang hypothesis as a dominant factor.

Suggested Citation

  • Claessens, Stijn & Oks, Danel & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1994. "Interest Rates, Growth and External Debt: The Macroeconomic Impact of Mexico's Brady Deal," CEPR Discussion Papers 904, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:904
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J. Bradford De Long and Barry Eichengreen., 1991. "The Marshall Plan: History's Most Successful Structural Adjustment Program," Economics Working Papers 91-184, University of California at Berkeley.
    2. Krugman, Paul, 1988. "Financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 253-268, November.
    3. Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1989. "Confidence Crises and Public Debt Management," CEPR Discussion Papers 318, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Eaton, Jonathan & Fernandez, Raquel, 1995. "Sovereign debt," Handbook of International Economics,in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 3, pages 2031-2077 Elsevier.
    2. Klimenko, Mikhail M., 2002. "Trade interdependence, the international financial institutions, and the recent evolution of sovereign-debt renegotiations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 177-209, October.
    3. Rudiger Dornbusch & Alejandro Werner, 1994. "Mexico: Stabilization, Reform, and No Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1), pages 253-316.
    4. Bowe, M. & Dean, J.W., 1997. "Has the Market Solved the Sovereign-Debt Crisis?," Princeton Studies in International Economics 83, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    5. Claessens, Stijn & Detragiache, Enrica & Kanbur, Ravi & Wickham, Peter, 1996. "Analytical aspects of the debt problems of heavily indebted poor countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1618, The World Bank.
    6. de Aghion, Beatriz Armendariz & de Hinestrosa, Patricia Armendariz, 1995. "Debt relief, growth and price stability in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 135-149, October.
    7. Roland Mestel & Karl Steininger, 1995. "Ansätze zur Behebung des Kapitalangebotsmangels in Entwicklungsländern. Die Zeit nach der Schuldenkrise," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 21(1), pages 139-173.
    8. Barbone, Luca & Forni, Lorenzo, 1997. "Are markets learning? : behavior in the secondary market for Brady bonds," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1734, The World Bank.
    9. Canuto, Otaviano & Pinto, Brian & Prasad, Mona, 2012. "Orderly sovereign debt restructuring : missing in action !," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6054, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt Relief; Debt Uncertainty; Investment and Uncertainty; Uncertainty and Economic Growth;

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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