IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/3221.html

The Use of Flow Analysis in Foreign Exchange: Explanatory Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Gehrig, Thomas
  • Menkhoff, Lukas

Abstract

This Paper provides questionnaire evidence on the role of flow analysis for professional traders and fund managers. This evidence suggests that besides fundamental information and technical analysis, the analysis of flows provides an independent third type of information for professionals. The proposition that flows can be used to learn about fundamentals is not consistent with the data. Instead, evidence indicates that flows more likely provide insight into semi-fundamental private information, suggesting support for the efficient market hypothesis only in a weak form.

Suggested Citation

  • Gehrig, Thomas & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2002. "The Use of Flow Analysis in Foreign Exchange: Explanatory Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 3221, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3221
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP3221
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Mende & Lukas Menkhoff, 2003. "Tobin Tax Effects Seen from the Foreign Exchange Market's Microstructure," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 227-247, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Reitz, Stefan & Rülke, Jan & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Nonlinear Expectations in Speculative Markets," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62045, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Reitz, Stefan & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Nonlinear expectations in speculative markets – Evidence from the ECB survey of professional forecasters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 1349-1363.
    3. Westerhoff, Frank H. & Dieci, Roberto, 2006. "The effectiveness of Keynes-Tobin transaction taxes when heterogeneous agents can trade in different markets: A behavioral finance approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 293-322, February.
    4. Dammak, Wael & Frikha, Wajdi & Souissi, Mohamed Naceur, 2024. "Market turbulence and investor decision-making in currency option market," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    5. Westerhoff Frank H., 2008. "The Use of Agent-Based Financial Market Models to Test the Effectiveness of Regulatory Policies," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 228(2-3), pages 195-227, April.
    6. Chi-Wei Su, 2012. "The relationship between exchange rate and macroeconomic variables in China," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 30(1), pages 33-56.
    7. Sid Ghoshal & Stephen Roberts, 2016. "Extracting Predictive Information from Heterogeneous Data Streams using Gaussian Processes," Papers 1603.06202, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.
    8. Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2004. "Bubbles and Crashes in a Behavioural Finance Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 1194, CESifo.
    9. Peter Rowland & Hugo OLiveros C., 2003. "Colombian Purchasing Power Parity Analysed Using a Framework of Multivariate Cointegration," Borradores de Economia 252, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. Wu, Po-Chin & Liu, Shiao-Yen & Pan, Sheng-Chieh, 2013. "Nonlinear bilateral trade balance-fundamentals nexus: A panel smooth transition regression approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 318-329.
    11. Ghada A. Altarawneh & Ahmad B. Hassanat & Ahmad S. Tarawneh & Ahmad Abadleh & Malek Alrashidi & Mansoor Alghamdi, 2022. "Stock Price Forecasting for Jordan Insurance Companies Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic Utilizing Off-the-Shelf Technical Analysis Methods," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-18, February.
    12. Ryan Sullivan & Allan Timmermann & Halbert White, 1999. "Data‐Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1647-1691, October.
    13. Park, Cheol-Ho & Irwin, Scott H., 2004. "The Profitability Of Technical Trading Rules In Us Futures Markets: A Data Snooping Free Test," 2004 Conference, April 19-20, 2004, St. Louis, Missouri 19011, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    14. Reitz, Stefan, 2006. "On the predictive content of technical analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 121-137, August.
    15. Martin, Anna D., 2001. "Technical trading rules in the spot foreign exchange markets of developing countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 59-68, February.
    16. Stephan Schulmeister, 2000. "Technical Analysis and Exchange Rate Dynamics," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 25857, June.
    17. Trifan, Emanuela, 2004. "Entscheidungsregeln und ihr Einfluss auf den Aktienkurs," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 131, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    18. Kun Xing & Honggang Li, 2024. "The profitability of interacting trading strategies from an ecological perspective," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 377-394, September.
    19. Richard H. Clarida & Mark P. Taylor, 1997. "The Term Structure Of Forward Exchange Premiums And The Forecastability Of Spot Exchange Rates: Correcting The Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(3), pages 353-361, August.
    20. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Simón Sosvilla Rivero, 1993. "Teorías del tipo de cambio: una panorámica," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 9307, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3221. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.