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Antipersistent Markov behavior in foreign exchange markets

Author

Listed:
  • Baviera, Roberto
  • Pasquini, Michele
  • Serva, Maurizio
  • Vergni, Davide
  • Vulpiani, Angelo

Abstract

A quantitative check of efficiency in US dollar/Deutsche mark exchange rates is developed using high-frequency (tick by tick) data. The antipersistent Markov behavior of log-price fluctuations of given size implies, in principle, the possibility of a statistical forecast. We introduce and measure the available information of the quote sequence, and we show how it can be profitable following a particular trading rule.

Suggested Citation

  • Baviera, Roberto & Pasquini, Michele & Serva, Maurizio & Vergni, Davide & Vulpiani, Angelo, 2002. "Antipersistent Markov behavior in foreign exchange markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 312(3), pages 565-576.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:312:y:2002:i:3:p:565-576
    DOI: 10.1016/S0378-4371(02)00968-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    2. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Muniandy, Sithi V. & Uning, Rosemary, 2006. "Characterization of exchange rate regimes based on scaling and correlation properties of volatility for ASEAN-5 countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 371(2), pages 585-598.
    2. K. Ivanova & M. Ausloos & H. Takayasu, 2003. "Deterministic and stochastic influences on Japan and US stock and foreign exchange markets. A Fokker-Planck approach," Papers cond-mat/0301268, arXiv.org.

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