IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpm/notfdl/2514.html

Why is the Cost of Borrowing for Developing Countries so high?

Author

Listed:
  • Diwan, Ishac
  • Harnoys-Vannier, Brendan

Abstract

Over the past decade, borrowing costs for Low- and Lower-Middle-Income Countries (LLMICs) have risen sharply. In 2015, their Eurobond spreads were broadly in line with those of Upper-Middle-Income Countries (UMICs). Today, LLMICs’ spreads are three times higher and far more volatile—placing them in a separate asset class. This divergence raises urgent questions: Why has market confidence in LLMICs deteriorated so much? And why is the gap with UMICs widening, even though both groups face the same global shocks—such as the COVID-19 pandemic and rising U.S. interest rates?

Suggested Citation

  • Diwan, Ishac & Harnoys-Vannier, Brendan, 2025. "Why is the Cost of Borrowing for Developing Countries so high?," FDL Policy Notes 2514, CEPREMAP.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpm:notfdl:2514
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://findevlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/FDL_Working-Paper-8_Cost-of-Borrowing_FINAL-1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(1), pages 69-102.
    2. Wicht, Adrien, 2025. "Seniority and sovereign default: The role of official multilateral lenders," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    3. Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 690-712, June.
    4. Cordella, Tito & Powell, Andrew, 2021. "Preferred and non-preferred creditors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    5. Amir Saadaoui & Anis Elammari & Mohamed Kriaa, 2022. "Credit rating announcement and bond liquidity: the case of emerging bond markets," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 27(53), pages 86-104, February.
    6. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2000. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116.
    7. Gehring, Kai & Lang, Valentin, 2020. "Stigma or cushion? IMF programs and sovereign creditworthiness," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    8. Li, Qingyuan & Tsang, Albert & Wu, Qiong & Xiong, Xi, 2025. "ESG rating agencies and investors’ reactions to earnings news," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1).
    9. Diwan, Ishac & Kessler, Martin & Harnoys-Vannier, Brendan, 2023. "IDA In The Debt Crisis: Exploring feasible deals through comparability of treatments and new loans," FDL Policy Notes 2306, CEPREMAP.
    10. Trejos, Alberto & Wright, Randall, 1995. "Search, Bargaining, Money, and Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(1), pages 118-141, February.
    11. Pierre Siklos, 2011. "Central bank transparency: another look," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(10), pages 929-933.
    12. Passadore, Juan & Xu, Yu, 2022. "Illiquidity in sovereign debt markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    13. Guido Lorenzoni & Iván Werning, 2019. "Slow Moving Debt Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(9), pages 3229-3263, September.
    14. Gelos, R. Gaston & Sahay, Ratna & Sandleris, Guido, 2011. "Sovereign borrowing by developing countries: What determines market access?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 243-254, March.
    15. Krahnke, Tobias, 2023. "Doing more with less: The catalytic function of IMF lending and the role of program size," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    16. Chahine, Salim & Panizza, Ugo & Suedekum, Guilherme, 2025. "IMF programs and borrowing costs does size matter?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    17. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 2006. "Catalytic finance: When does it work?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 161-177, September.
    18. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aguiar, M. & Chatterjee, S. & Cole, H. & Stangebye, Z., 2016. "Quantitative Models of Sovereign Debt Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1697-1755, Elsevier.
    2. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Francisco Roch, 2022. "Fiscal Rules and the Sovereign Default Premium," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 244-273, October.
    3. Gabriel Cuadra & Juan Sanchez & Horacio Sapriza, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and Default Risk in Emerging Markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(2), pages 452-469, April.
    4. Florian Kirsch & Ronald Rühmkorf, 2017. "Sovereign borrowing, financial assistance, and debt repudiation," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(4), pages 777-804, December.
    5. Diego J. Perez, 2015. "Sovereign Debt, Domestic Banks and the Provision of Public Liquidity," Discussion Papers 15-016, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    6. Tavares, Tiago, 2019. "Labor market distortions under sovereign debt default crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    7. Javier Bianchi & Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez, 2018. "International Reserves and Rollover Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2629-2670, September.
    8. Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 690-712, June.
    9. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & César Sosa-Padilla, 2016. "Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(5), pages 1383-1422.
    10. Juan M. Morelli & Pablo Ottonello & Diego J. Perez, 2022. "Global Banks and Systemic Debt Crises," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(2), pages 749-798, March.
    11. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza, 2009. "Heterogeneous Borrowers In Quantitative Models Of Sovereign Default," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1129-1151, November.
    12. Yue, Vivian Z., 2010. "Sovereign default and debt renegotiation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 176-187, March.
    13. Mitra, Nirvana, 2020. "Political Constraints and Sovereign Default Premia," MPRA Paper 104172, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Gonzalez-Aguado, Eugenia, 2022. "Interest Rate Shocks and the Composition of Sovereign Debt," TSE Working Papers 22-1379, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    15. Leonardo Martinez & Juan Hatchondo, 2017. "Sovereign Cocos and the Reprofiling of Debt Payments," 2017 Meeting Papers 1435, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Cuadra, Gabriel & Sapriza, Horacio, 2008. "Sovereign default, interest rates and political uncertainty in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 78-88, September.
    17. Tavares, Tiago, 2015. "Labor Market Distortions under Sovereign Default Crises," MPRA Paper 66964, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Tavares, Tiago, 2025. "The role of international reserves in sovereign debt restructuring under fiscal adjustment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    19. Pancrazi, Roberto & Seoane, Hernan D. & Vukotic, Marija, "undated". "Sovereign Risk, Private Credit, and Stabilization Policies," Economic Research Papers 270214, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    20. Takefumi Yamazaki, 2018. "Financial friction sources in emerging economies: Structural estimation of sovereign default models," Discussion papers ron303, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpm:notfdl:2514. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martin Kessler (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ceprefr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.