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Doing more with less: The catalytic function of IMF lending and the role of program size

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  • Krahnke, Tobias

Abstract

Financial assistance provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is supposed to unlock other financing, acting as a catalyst for private capital flows. The empirical evidence of the presence of such a catalytic effect has, however, been mixed. This paper shows that a possible explanation for the rather inconclusive empirical evidence to date is the neglect of the size of an IMF program. Applying a novel identification strategy to account for endogenous selection into (large) adjustment programs, and using a comprehensive data set spanning the years 1990-2018, we show that the catalytic effect of IMF financial assistance is weakened – and potentially reversed – if the size of a program exceeds a certain level. We argue that large IMF financial assistance coupled with the IMF’s preferred creditor status can lead to a crowding-out of private investors by increasing their loss in the event of default. Our findings add to the debate on the optimal size of Fund-supported programs and can also inform the broader policy discussions on the adequacy of IMF resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Krahnke, Tobias, 2023. "Doing more with less: The catalytic function of IMF lending and the role of program size," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:135:y:2023:i:c:s0261560623000578
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2023.102856
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bai, Ye & Banerji, Sanjay & Wang, Zilong & Zhang, Wenjing, 2024. "Can participation in IMF programs facilitate sovereign debt rescheduling? The role of program size," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    2. Hugo Oriola & Jamel Saadaoui, 2024. "How do geopolitical interests affect financial markets reaction to international institution projects?," Working Papers of BETA 2024-25, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    3. Chahine, Salim & Panizza, Ugo & Suedekum, Guilherme, 2024. "IMF Programs and Borrowing Costs: Does Size Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 19015, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Monetary Fund; Capital flows; Financial crises; Lender of last resort;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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