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Demographic transition, intergenerational transfers and the increase in public and national debts

  • Laffargue, Jean-Pierre
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    Ce papier analyse les politiques et réformes dynamiquement cohérentes d’un système public de transferts intergénérationnels. Si l’Etat accorde un poids suffisamment modéré aux personnes âgées vivantes, les Gouvernements successifs mettront en oeuvre des politiques donnant des résultats équitables pour les différentes générations, alors même que leurs fonctions de bien-être social ne sont pas équitables à l’égard des générations non encore nées. Le rapport de la dette publique au PIB ne changera pas au cours du temps et les consommations des générations successives croîtront au taux naturel de l’économie. Cependant, si le Gouvernement donne un poids plus élevé aux personnes âgées, le rapport de la dette publique au PIB augmentera au cours du temps. Alors, les générations futures paieront des impôts de plus en plus élevés et consommeront de moins en moins. La transition démographique n’interfère pas avec ces résultats, bien qu’elle rende tous les consommateurs plus pauvres. Cependant, il y a la possibilité que le poids des générations âgées dans les préférences de l’Etat ait augmenté récemment et que certains pays industrialises soient entrés dans un processus d’endettement public croissant et d’appauvrissement des générations futures.

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    File URL: http://www.cepremap.fr/depot/docweb/docweb0509.pdf
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    Paper provided by CEPREMAP in its series CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) with number 0509.

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    Length: 30 pages
    Date of creation: Jun 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:cpm:docweb:0509
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    1. Feldstein, Martin & Liebman, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Social security," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 32, pages 2245-2324 Elsevier.
    2. David Miles & Ales Cerny, 2006. "Risk, Return and Portfolio Allocation under Alternative Pension Systems with Incomplete and Imperfect Financial Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(511), pages 529-557, 04.
    3. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2003. "The Developed World's Demographic Transition - The Roles of Capital Flows, Immigration, and Policy," NBER Working Papers 10096, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Gabrielle Demange & Laroque Guy, 2000. "Retraite par répartition ou par capitalisation : une analyse de long terme," Post-Print halshs-00585272, HAL.
    5. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521001151 is not listed on IDEAS
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