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Risk, Return and Portfolio Allocation under Alternative Pension Systems with Incomplete and Imperfect Financial Markets


  • David Miles
  • Ales Cerny


This article uses stochastic simulations on a calibrated model to assess the impact of different pension reform strategies where financial markets are less than perfect. We investigate the optimal split between funded and unfunded systems when there are sources of uninsurable risk that are allocated in different ways by different types of pension system when there are imperfections in financial markets. This article calculates the expected welfare of agents of different cohorts under various policy scenarios. We estimate how the optimal level of unfunded, state pensions depends on rate of return and income risks and also upon preferences. Copyright 2006 Royal Economic Society.

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  • David Miles & Ales Cerny, 2006. "Risk, Return and Portfolio Allocation under Alternative Pension Systems with Incomplete and Imperfect Financial Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(511), pages 529-557, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:116:y:2006:i:511:p:529-557

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Anderson, Evan W. & McGrattan, Ellen R. & Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1996. "Mechanics of forming and estimating dynamic linear economies," Handbook of Computational Economics,in: H. M. Amman & D. A. Kendrick & J. Rust (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 171-252 Elsevier.
    2. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2009. "The Conquest of South American Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(2), pages 211-256, April.
    3. In-Koo Cho & Noah Williams & Thomas J. Sargent, 2002. "Escaping Nash Inflation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(1), pages 1-40.
    4. Song Chen, 2000. "Probability Density Function Estimation Using Gamma Kernels," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 52(3), pages 471-480, September.
    5. Williams, Noah, 2004. "Small noise asymptotics for a stochastic growth model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 271-298, December.
    6. Hans M. Amman & David A. Kendrick, . "Computational Economics," Online economics textbooks, SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number comp1, March.
    7. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yvonne Adema, 2010. "Pensions, Debt and Inflation Risk in a Monetary Union," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-109/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Jean-Pierre Laffargue, 2009. "Intergenerational transfers and the stability of public debt with short-lived governments," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00270503, HAL.
    3. Gianluca Baio & Laura Magazzini & Claudia Oglialoro & Fabio Pammolli & Massimo Riccaboni, 2005. "Medical Devices: Competitiveness and Impact on Public Health Expenditure," Working Papers CERM 05-2005, Competitività, Regole, Mercati (CERM).
    4. Whelan, Shane, 2007. "Valuing Ireland's Pension System," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2007(2-Summer), pages 55-80.
    5. Beetsma, Roel M.W.J. & Bovenberg, A. Lans & Romp, Ward E., 2011. "Funded pensions and intergenerational and international risk sharing in general equilibrium," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1516-1534.
    6. Černý, Aleš & Miles, David & Schmidt, L'Ubomír, 2010. "The impact of changing demographics and pensions on the demand for housing and financial assets," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(03), pages 393-420, July.
    7. Sánchez Martín, A. & Jiménez Martín, S. & Robalino, D. & Todeschini, F., 2012. "Labor Income and the Design of Default Portfolios in Mandatory Pension Systems: An Application to Chile," Working Papers 2012-04, FEDEA.
    8. Uryszek Tomasz, 2015. "Long-term Sustainability Of Public Finance In The Central And Eastern EU Member States / Długoterminowe Zrównoważenie Finansów Publicznych w Krajach Europy Środkowej i Wschodniej Należących Do Ue," Comparative Economic Research, De Gruyter Open, vol. 18(4), pages 47-61, December.
    9. Barrett, Alan & Kearney, Ide & O'Brien, Martin, 2007. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2007," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20072.
    10. Jean-Pierre Laffargue, 2005. "Demographic transition, intergenerational transfers and the increase in public and national debts," PSE Working Papers halshs-00590826, HAL.

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