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The impact of changing demographics and pensions on the demand for housing and financial assets

  • ČERNÝ, ALEŠ
  • MILES, DAVID
  • SCHMIDT, L'UBOMÍR

Using a calibrated OLG model with several sources of uncertainty we find that the impact of ageing and of reform of social security upon the demand for housing and the level of owner occupation is substantial. The overall structure of household asset holdings – in particular the split between real and financial assets – is sensitive to demographics and to the generosity of state run, pay-as-you-go pensions. The interaction between social security reform and housing market conditions is significant and suggests that any changes in pension rules will have substantial knock on effects on the housing market.

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Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Journal of Pension Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 9 (2010)
Issue (Month): 03 (July)
Pages: 393-420

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Handle: RePEc:cup:jpenef:v:9:y:2010:i:03:p:393-420_99
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  1. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2001. "Are the Japanese Selfish, Altruistic, or Dynastic?," ISER Discussion Paper 0556, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  2. Joao Cocco, 2000. "Hedging House Price Risk With Incomplete Markets," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 317, Society for Computational Economics.
  3. Martin Feldstein & Jeffrey B. Liebman, 2001. "Social Security," NBER Working Papers 8451, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Feldstein, Martin & Liebman, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Social security," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 32, pages 2245-2324 Elsevier.
  4. John Y. Campbell & João F. Cocco & Francisco J. Gomes & Pascal J. Maenhout, 2001. "Investing Retirement Wealth: A Life-Cycle Model," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 439-482 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Lawrence H. Summers, 1980. "The Role of Intergenerational Transfers in Aggregate Capital Accumulation," NBER Working Papers 0445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Imrohoroglu, Ayse & Imrohoroglu, Selahattin & Joines, Douglas H, 1995. "A Life Cycle Analysis of Social Security," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 6(1), pages 83-114, June.
  7. Miles, David, 1997. "A Household Level Study of the Determinants of Incomes and Consumption," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 1-25, January.
  8. David Miles & Ales Cerny, 2006. "Risk, Return and Portfolio Allocation under Alternative Pension Systems with Incomplete and Imperfect Financial Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(511), pages 529-557, 04.
  9. Mariacristina De Nardi & Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Thomas J. Sargent, 1998. "Projected U.S. demographics and social security," Working Paper Series WP-98-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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