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The Sydney Olympics, seven years on: an ex-post dynamic CGE assessment

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  • James A Giesecke
  • John R Madden

Abstract

A recent development in ex-ante analysis of mega events is the use of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. CGE models improve greatly on the input-output model, which they have largely displaced, since they incorporate fixed factors and substitution effects. However, like input-output, the method is still subject to the risk of over-optimistic estimation of benefits. We see three sources of such risk: (i) failure to treat public inputs as costs; (ii) elastic factor supply assumptions; and (iii) overestimation of foreign demand shocks via inclusion of "induced tourism" expenditure. In this paper, we undertake an ex-post analysis of the Olympics that addresses each of these risks. We handle the first two directly: public services used to support the Games (such as security services) are treated as Games-specific inputs, and we model the national labour market in full employment. For the third risk, we undertake an historical simulation to uncover the extent, if any, of induced tourism. We find no evidence of an induced tourism effect, and so exclude it from our analysis. With these assumptions, we find the Sydney Olympics generated a net consumption loss of approximately $2.1 billion.

Suggested Citation

  • James A Giesecke & John R Madden, 2007. "The Sydney Olympics, seven years on: an ex-post dynamic CGE assessment," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-168, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  • Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-168
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    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. S'HANNO DA FARE LE OLIMPIADI A ROMA NEL 2020?
      by Lawrence Bartolomucci in La Voce on 2012-01-31 18:00:00
    2. Boston Nabs U.S. Olympics Nomination. Sucks to Be Boston.
      by Jim Pagels in Hit & Run blog on 2015-01-10 01:36:00

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Dawson & Paul Downward & Terence C. Mills, 2014. "Olympic news and attitudes towards the Olympics: a compositional time-series analysis of how sentiment is affected by events," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 1307-1314, June.
    2. Paul Dolan & Georgios Kavetsos & Christian Krekel & Dimitris Mavridis & Robert Metcalfe & Claudia Senik & Stefan Szymanski & Nicolas R. Ziebarth, 2016. "The Host with the Most? The Effects of the Olympic Games on Happiness," PSE Working Papers halshs-01349354, HAL.
    3. Massiani, Jérôme, 2015. "How much will this event benefit our economy? A checklist for Economic Impact Assessment and application to Milan 2015 International Exhibition," MPRA Paper 68976, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2015.
    4. John K. Wilson & Richard Pomfret, 2009. "Government Subsidies for Professional Team Sports in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 42(3), pages 264-275.
    5. repec:sav:ebooks:003 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Richard Pomfret & John K. Wilson, 2011. "The Peculiar Economics of Government Policy towards Sport," Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, vol. 18(1), pages 85-100.
    7. Kasimati, Evangelia & Dawson, Peter, 2009. "Assessing the impact of the 2004 Olympic Games on the Greek economy: A small macroeconometric model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 139-146, January.
    8. Li, ShiNa & Blake, Adam & Thomas, Rhodri, 2013. "Modelling the economic impact of sports events: The case of the Beijing Olympics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 235-244.
    9. John K. Wilson & Richard Pomfret, 2014. "Public Policy and Professional Sports," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15381, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Olympics economic impact; major projects; regional dynamic CGE;

    JEL classification:

    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies
    • H43 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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