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Quantitative Evidence of Goodwins Non Linear Growth Cycles


  • Mario Garcia Molina


  • Alba Avila


  • Ibrahim Massy



The article searches for quantitative evidence in favor of an extended version of Goodwin´s predator-prey model of endogenous distribution-employment cycles for 16 countries. The model is extended to include several harmonics in both series. The model fits all the observations both within sample and out of sample for half of the countries, with a 10% error, and for 4 countries with a 5% error. This suggests that the model may be useful in empirical work.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Garcia Molina & Alba Avila & Ibrahim Massy, 2010. "Quantitative Evidence of Goodwins Non Linear Growth Cycles," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO - ESCUELA DE ECONOMÍA 007465, UN - RCE - CID.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000178:007465

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Rodolphe Dos Santos Ferreira, 2004. "Guerre et paix. Variations sur la notion de concurrence au siècle de Cournot," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 55(3), pages 543-556.
    2. Xavier Greffe & Jérome Lallement & Michel De Vroey, 2002. "Dictionnaire des grandes oeuvres économiques," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00272064, HAL.
    3. James W. Friedman, 2000. "The legacy of Augustin Cournot," Cahiers d'Économie Politique, Programme National Persée, vol. 37(1), pages 31-46.
    4. Wagner, Alfred, 1891. "Marshall's Principles of Economics," History of Economic Thought Articles, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, vol. 5, pages 319-338.
    5. Edgeworth, Francis Ysidro, 1881. "Mathematical Psychics," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, number edgeworth1881.
    6. Carlo Benetti, 1997. "El método normativo de la teoría económica positiva (Traducción de José Félix Cataño)," REVISTA CUADERNOS DE ECONOMÍA, UN - RCE - CID, June.
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    1. repec:nea:journl:y:2017i:35:p:53-69 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item


    Predator - prey model; Non - linear dynamic behavior; Demand cycles; Employment; Distribution.;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E19 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Other
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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