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Inflación de costos: las devaluaciones de los años cincuenta y el brote populista de 1963 / Cost-push inflation: the devaluations of the fifties and the 1963 populist outbreak

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  • Javier G. Gómez-Pineda

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Abstract

El artículo estudia la inflación en Colombia durante 1951-1963 de acuerdo al enfoque de presión de costos (cost push inflation). El artículo propone un modelo en el que la inflación responde a los aumentos salariales, la devaluación y la inflación de alimentos. El modelo incorpora una ecuación para la inflación de alimentos en función del fenómeno El Niño-Oscilación del Sur. Entre los resultados se argumenta que los ajustes masivos en los salarios y la tasa de cambio actuaron como importantes fuerzas expansivas de la inflación durante los programas de estabilización y como fuerzas contractivas de la misma durante los prolongados períodos comprendidos entre los ajustes. Los choques de oferta de alimentos desempeñaron un papel importante en la evolución de la inflación en el corto plazo. El análisis lleva a dos principales implicaciones de política. Primero, la evolución de la inflación en el corto plazo ha sido atribuida por la literatura a los cambios en el crecimiento del dinero, pero el enfoque de inflación de costos ofrece importantes puntos de vista sobre la evolución de la inflación en el corto plazo. Segundo, Colombia no llegó a la hiperinflación porque no persistió en el objetivo de aumentar los salarios reales. En vez de esto, permitió aumentos de precios y renunció a regla de indexación de los salarios. En consecuencia la inflación se mantuvo flexible y bajó rápidamente.****** The article studies Colombia’s inflation during 1951–1963 under the cost-push approach. In the model, inflation follows wage and exchange rate adjustments, as well as food inflation supply shocks. The model incorporates an equation for food inflation defined on El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon. The results show that massive adjustments in wages and in the exchange rate acted as major inflationary forces during the stabilization programs of the post war period and as disinflationary forces during the prolonged periods in between these programs. Food inflation supply shocks were important drivers of inflation in the short term. Two main policy implications arise. First, the evolution of inflation in the short term has been attributed in the literature to changes in the growth of money, but the cost-push approach provides important insights about the evolution of inflation in the short term. Second, Colombia did not experience hyperinflation because the authorities did not maintain the real wage objective. Instead, the authorities allowed prices to rise and gave up the wage indexation clause. As a consequence, inflation remained flexible and dropped rapidly.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier G. Gómez-Pineda, 2016. "Inflación de costos: las devaluaciones de los años cincuenta y el brote populista de 1963 / Cost-push inflation: the devaluations of the fifties and the 1963 populist outbreak," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 014204, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:014204
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    File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/sites/default/files/publicaciones/archivos/be_924.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rudiger Dornbusch & Sebastian Edwards, 1991. "The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number dorn91-1, April.
    2. Michele Alacevich, 2009. "The Political Economy of the World Bank : The Early Years," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13807.
    3. Javier Gómez, 1999. "A Model of the Nominal and Real Exchange Rates in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 129, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Rudiger Dornbusch & Sebastian Edwards, 1991. "Introduction to "The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America"," NBER Chapters,in: The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America, pages 1-4 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflación de costos; espiral de precios y salarios; indexación; macroeconomía del populismo; mínimo vital y móvil / Cost push inflation; wage-price spiral; indexation; macroeconomics of populism; minimum wage;

    JEL classification:

    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
    • N16 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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