Forecasting annual inflation with power transformations: the case of inflation targeting countries
This paper investigates whether transforming the Consumer Price Index with a class of power transformations lead to an improvement of inflation forecasting accuracy. We use one of the prototypical models to forecast short run inflation which is known as the univariate time series ARIMA . This model is based on past inflation which is traditionally approximated by the difference of logarithms of the underlying consumer price index. The common practice of applying the logarithm could damage the forecast precision if this transformation does not stabilize the variance adequately. In this paper we investigate the benefits of incorporating these transformations using a sample of 28 countries that has adopted the inflation targeting framework. An appropriate transformation reduces problems with estimation, prediction and inference. The choice of the parameter is done by bayesian grounds.
|Date of creation:||05 Feb 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lütkepohl, Helmut & Proietti, Tommaso, 2011.
"Does the Box-Cox transformation help in forecasting macroeconomic time series?,"
08/2011, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
- Proietti, Tommaso & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2013. "Does the Box–Cox transformation help in forecasting macroeconomic time series?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 88-99.
- Tommaso, Proietti & Helmut, Luetkepohl, 2011. "Does the Box-Cox transformation help in forecasting macroeconomic time series?," MPRA Paper 32294, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Tommaso Proietti & Helmut Luetkepohl, 2011. "Does the Box-Cox Transformation Help in Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series?," Economics Working Papers ECO2011/29, European University Institute.
- Hosoya, Yuzo & Terasaka, Takahiro, 2009. "Inference on transformed stationary time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 151(2), pages 129-139, August.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999.
NBER Working Papers
7023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000094:010462. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.