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Quiebre estructural de la relación entre la política fiscal y el riesgo soberano en las economías emergentes: el caso colombiano

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Manuel Julio R.
  • Ignacio Lozano
  • Ligia Alba Melo B.

Abstract

En este trabajo se muestra que el EMBI-Colombia está determinado por el apetito por riesgo de los inversionistas internacionales y que su respuesta es no lineal y está influenciada por la postura fiscal del gobierno. Se encuentra también que la relación entre estas variables sufrió un cambio estructural favorable en la mitad de la década del 2000, que parece estar asociado a los mejores fundamentales macroeconómicos locales y al deterioro del entorno internacional. Finalmente, se concluye que el riesgo soberano mantiene una relación unidireccional con la devaluación nominal y la valorización anual del IGBC, sugiriendo que el EMBI aporta la información básica para valorar las perspectivas de los mercados financieros locales.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Manuel Julio R. & Ignacio Lozano & Ligia Alba Melo B., 2012. "Quiebre estructural de la relación entre la política fiscal y el riesgo soberano en las economías emergentes: el caso colombiano," Borradores de Economia 9316, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:009316
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hernando Vargas & Andrés Gonzalez & Ignacio Lozano, 2012. "Macroeconomic effects of structural fiscal policy changes in Colombia," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Fiscal policy, public debt and monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 67, pages 119-160, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Ligia Alba Melo B & Jorge Ramos F & Hector Zarate S, 2013. "Mercado de bonos soberanos y estabilidad financiera: Una aplicación de Gráficos Acíclicos Direccionados (GAD) y modelos SVAR," Borradores de Economia 11099, Banco de la Republica.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Política fiscal; deuda soberana; análisis de riego; mercados financieros;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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