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Impacto del precio del petróleo en la estructura productiva de la economía Hondureña

Author

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  • Tejeda, Merit

    (Universidad de los Andes)

Abstract

En los años más recientes, Honduras ha alcanzado la apertura comercial más alta de América Latina. Al ser un país importador neto de derivados de petróleo, su economía es altamente vulnerable a choques externos del precio de este insumo. Debido a las diferencias importantes en la utilización de derivados del petróleo por actividad económica, hay sectores productivos que son más afectados frente a estos choques. Este estudio analiza cómo las variaciones en los precios del petróleo inciden en la estructura productiva del país, empleando un modelo de Ciclos Económicos Reales (RBC, por sus siglas en inglés) adaptado a una economía pequeña y abierta. Los hallazgos revelan que un incremento en el precio del petróleo equivalente a una desviación estándar reduce la producción económica general en un 9,7%. Se destaca una marcada heterogeneidad sectorial: mientras los sectores transable y no transable no intensivo muestran reducciones en la producción de -9,7% y -4,5% respectivamente, el sector no transable intensivo, con alta dependencia del petróleo, sufre una reducción importante en su producción del 59,3%.

Suggested Citation

  • Tejeda, Merit, 2024. "Impacto del precio del petróleo en la estructura productiva de la economía Hondureña," Documentos CEDE 21201, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:021201
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Precios del petróleo; Estructura Productiva; Honduras; Economía Importadora Neta; Ciclos Económicos Reales (RBC);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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