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Estimating Commercial Property Price Misalignment in the CEE Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Hana Hejlova
  • Michal Hlavacek
  • Blanka Vackova

Abstract

In this article, we estimate the misalignment of commercial property prices. To this end, we propose a semi-structural model which imitates the functioning of various segments of the commercial real estate market. To estimate this model, we use a unique set of data on the markets for two property types (office and industrial) in five CEE countries and Germany, provided by JLL. First, we estimate the model for each property type on a panel of countries to capture the international nature of the markets. Secondly, for the example of the Czech Republic we estimate the model on a panel of property types to capture the possible orientation of individual investors towards a certain country. Finally, we compare the outcomes. The results suggest that investors tend to orientate towards certain property types rather than particular countries. It also shows that our approach avoids the end-point bias which can be present when assessing commercial property prices with an HP filter.

Suggested Citation

  • Hana Hejlova & Michal Hlavacek & Blanka Vackova, 2020. "Estimating Commercial Property Price Misalignment in the CEE Countries," Working Papers 2020/11, Czech National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2020/11
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commercial property; misalignment of prices; types of property;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • R32 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Other Spatial Production and Pricing Analysis

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